Not sure there is anybody, including Howie, that believes Howie will make all three picks in the 1st round this year. Many want to grab a 2023 1st to give the Eagles QB options after this year which makes sense. But what do trade-ups into the middle of the round where the Eagles are sitting look like, especially in a weak QB class?
Possible Eagles trade-down scenarios
History of 1st round trade-ups
Below lists all of the trade-ups over the past five years within several selections of the Eagles first and last pick (anywhere from 12 to 26).
2017 Draft Trade-Ups
I included this as it includes a future 1st and while 2022 isn’t looked at as a good QB class, QB-needy teams always reach for QBs. There are several needy teams and the Eagles mid-round picks could end up being valuable.
Houston moves up from 25 to 12 for a franchise QB
Houston trades up from 25 to 12 for QB Deshaun Watson. Cleveland receives 1-25 and a 2018 1st.
2018 Draft Trade-Ups
Several interesting trades in 2018 – two for LBs, a top corner, and a top DE that was falling. One includes a future 1st when Green Bay moved back to the back of the 1st.
New Orleans gets a top defensive end, moving up from 27 to 14
The Saints were thought to move up, but instead of taking Lamar Jackson, they move up and take Marcus Davenport, a highly athletic DE and who turned out to be the best from that class, at 1-14. They send 1-27, 5-147, and a 2019 1st to Green Bay.
Note that whether you believe in the draft value chart or not, all of the trades listed here are pretty close to balancing except this one – in a lopsided trade, New Orleans gave up 538 points for 325 points.
Green Bay deals again, moving up to 18 for a shutdown corner
The Packers send the just acquired 1-27 along with 3-76 and 6-186 to Seattle for 1-18 and 7-248 to take CB Jaire Alexander. After trading away CB Damarious Randall, this move up filled a position of need.
Buffalo moves up 22 to 16 for a LB
After trading up for Josh Allen, the Bills trade up again, getting pick 16 (LB Tremaine Edmunds) and 5-154 from Baltimore in exchange for 1-22 and 3-65. Buffalo had an extra 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 2018 after the prior year KC trade-up for Mahomes and Sammy Watkins trade.
Another LB trade-up, Tennessee moves up from 25 to 22
The Titans move up for LB Rashaan Evans, sending 1-25 and 4-125 to Baltimore for 1-22 and 6-215.
2019 Draft Trade-Ups
Again, a couple of interesting trade ups – one for a top EDGE and another for a top safety. It is not crazy that five EDGEs could be taken by the Eagles pick and while the Eagles are clearly going to take an EDGE, there could be demand for one of their picks get one of the remaining ones.
Washington moves up 20 spots from the 2nd to grab a falling DE at 26
Washington had already taken Dwayne Haskins at 15, but trade back into the 1st, getting 1-26 to take DE Montez Sweat (Sweat was a projected top-10 pick who dropped due to a misdiagnosed heart condition). The Colts receive 2-46 and a 2020 2nd.
Moving up from 30 to 21 for the top safety
Green Bay trades up from 30 to 21 for S Darnell Savage, sending Seattle 1-30, 4-114, and 4-118.
The Eagles move up from 25 to 22 for Andre Dillard
A move we all know well, the Eagles send 1-25, 4-125, and 6-197 to Baltimore for 1-22 and select OT Andre Dillard.
2020 Draft Trade-Ups
This is the 3rd of 11 trade-ups that were for a LB… who woulda known? Maybe the Eagles will want a LB this year, but if not, the top two of Lloyd and Dean may very well be sitting there when the Eagles pick this year and be an attractive trade-up for teams that prioritize LBs.
The Chargers move up 14 spots from the 2nd to grab a LB
LA trades up from R2-37 to 23 for LB Kenneth Murray, sending New England 2-37, 3-71. LA had already taken Justin Herbert and trades back into R1 for one of their top needs and the 2nd rated LB in the draft.
The Niners move up to 25 as a run on WRs occurs
Five WRs had already been taken by pick 22 and SF trades up from 31 to 25 for WR Brandon Aiyuk. Minnesota gets 1-31, 4-117, 5-176. Kyle Shanahan said they considered taking Aiyuk at 13 and knew that Miami at 26 was looking at Aiyuk (Miami then traded out of their pick once SF took Aiyuk).
2021 Draft Trade-Ups
This year EDGEs, corners, and receivers could dominate the top half of the first giving OL-needy teams a reason to move up like the Jets did last year for players like Charles Cross, Tyler Linderbaum, Trevor Penning, Zion Johnson, and Kenyon Green in the middle of the 1st.
The Jets move up to 14 and get protection for their new QB
New York trade 1-23, 3-66, and 3-86 to Minnesota for 1-14 and 4-123 to take one of their top draft targets, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, a player they had as a top-10 graded prospect.
Who could trade up in 2022?
As much criticism as Howie gets on draft picks, his trades have largely been good including the fleecing of Miami and Indy last year – over the last 5 years, the Eagles / Dolphins 1st round swap last year is the second most lopsided trade at +389 draft value points to Philly using the Rich Hill model (the most lopsided is the Miami / San Francisco trade last year when SF moved up for Trey Lance, +489 draft value points for Miami in that trade). But as the above shows, it isn’t common to turn a mid-round pick into a future 1st – most future 1sts involve picks in the top-10 and are for quarterbacks. But here are some scenarios:
Green Bay makes Aaron Rodgers happy
Needs: QB, OL/OT, CB
If you follow Packers draft Twitter, they are as tortured as we are in Philly. While WR is always a need and on the wish list, everybody fully expects them to keep taking somebody on the defensive line. This year could be, and should be, different. Will Aaron Rodgers leave? Most likely not, but the Packers need to keep him happy and how better to do that than with another receiver. There are a lot of teams that could go WR ahead of them – the Jets at 10, Browns at 13, Eagles at any of our picks, Chargers at 17, Broncos at 21, Raiders at 22, Bills at 25, and Tampa Bay at 27. Five WRs have expected draft positions higher than the Packers pick at 28 and if they want one of the top guys, they will need to move up.
What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 and 4-121 (307 points) to GB for 1-28 and a 2023 2nd (estimated 330 points)
Chance of happening: I really like this one. Green Bay has been aggressive, trading up in each of 2018 (to 18), 2019 (to 21), and 2020 (to 26), has to keep Rodgers happy, and they need another WR even if they keep free agent Davante Adams. Any of the Eagles picks should be in a great position to get one of the top WRs as only a couple may be off the board by then.
Falcons / Broncos / Lions / Jets use their extra draft capital
Needs: Falcons WR, OL, DL, CB, QB(?) / Broncos QB, EDGE, CB, LB / Lions QB, WR, DB, LB / Jets WR, LB, DB
This would look like the Chargers 2020 trade up for Kenneth Murray. Each of these teams have multiple 2nd round picks (Detroit has 1-32 and 2-34 actually), each could use secondary help, three need a receiver, and three could use a QB. Could one of them use their extra capital to move back into the 1st and grab a player of need that they passed on earlier?
What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 (278 points) in exchange for an early 2nd (DET at 34, NYJ at 36, ATL at 40, DEN at 41) and 2023 2nd (estimated 267-296 points).
Chance of happening: Probably my second favorite out of this list. QBs will always have demand and make teams do crazy things and corners and receivers are always priority positions to draft high. None of these are crazy move ups and each of the teams have the capital to do it if there is a player they really want.
Pittsburgh Steelers get their Ben replacement
Needs: QB, OL/OT, CB
The Steelers are one of many QB-needy teams and sitting in a bad spot at 20 with four QB-needy teams ahead of them: CAR at 6, DEN at 9, WAS at 11, and NO at 18. Not all will take a QB and three of the four are ahead of the Eagles best pick anyway, but if the board falls right and the Steelers are worried about New Orleans taking whoever they are in love with, a small trade down could work.
What it could look like: PHI sends 1-16 (305 points) to PIT for 1-20 and 3-84 (320 points)
Chance of happening: Pretty low, like JJAW going 7/90 in a game. It takes the board falling right and the Steelers worrying about New Orleans instead of just waiting. Most likely the Steelers address QB via a trade – I wouldn’t be shocked to see PIT trade for Wentz actually.
Indianapolis bets on a young QB
Needs: QB, WR, OT, DL
It is all but certain that Indy will trade Wentz which puts them back in the market for a QB. Wouldn’t it be something to trade them back their 1st for another haul? Would Indy fall in love with a Matt Corrall or Sam Howell and they are there in the middle of the 1st?
What it could look like: PHI sends 1-19 (278 points) to IND for R5-174 and their 2023 1st (estimated 314 points)
Chance of happening: This would be so much fun to again get a 1st from Indy but think it has near zero chance – I just included it for the fun of it. First, I think Indy will sign or trade a QB and see what they have in 2023. Second, this is so far to move up. But the Colts have a good team that needs a QB – the Pro Bowl isn’t the be-all-end-all, but the Colts have seven going this year.
A trade-down mock
Given how Expected Draft Positions for top edges and corners are trending, I would not be surprised if Howie moves up from 15 and also trades down from 19. For this mock, five EDGEs and 3 CBs went before 15 taking a lot of commonly Eagles mocked players off the board. Below I made the following trade:
- Eagles trade down out of the 1st for 2023 draft capital, sending 1-19 to the Jets for 2-36, 4-108, and a 2023 2nd.
- The Jets, after taking Ekwonu and Ahmad Gardner with their first two picks, select WR Treylon Burks after moving up, filling one of their biggest needs
R1-15 EDGE Jermaine Johnson – <Insert> Eagles favorite edge rusher here, I will go with Johnson as he is the one with an EDP at 18
R1-16 CB Andrew Booth – I won’t pick a corner for the Eagles that isn’t a good zone corner that can help in run defense. Booth is one of three top CB prospects with a 70 or better grade in man, zone, and run defense (McDuffie and Gordon are the other two)
R2-36 S Lewis Cine – No other safety both played as many deep safety snaps (65% of snaps at a) while also being so productive in run support (11 run stops)
R2-51 DT Perrion Winfrey – An investment in the aging interior with somebody who basically confirmed a Philly fit when he said “I don’t like playing with people that accept mediocrity… I want to play with dogs.” We got dog mentality and hungry dogs. Oh and he has the 2nd best pass rush productivity of top DT prospects (Logan Hall)
R3-83 OL Jamaree Salyer – I don’t think he ends up higher than this but can’t pass him up and I would move up to get him. What’s not to like? Played all 5 OL positions, gave up 1 sack in 4 years in the SEC, and shut out Hutchinson / Ojabo / Enagbare this year.
R4-108 LB Troy Andersen – He’s like Davion but bigger – both athletic freaks (Combine numbers are weirdly identical) and both only played around 1400 snaps at LB.
R4-121 WR Reggie Roberson – A down year after his injury and betting on him now that he is healthy – he was over 4 yards per route run and averaging over 20 YPC prior to his injury.
R5-152 CB Akayleb Evans – Another dog: “I feel like I’m an underdog. A lot of people overlook me… But that’s ok, it’s better when you can sneak up on people.” Philly confirmed.
R5-160 RB Jerrion Ealy – 7th in college in yards after contact per attempt and the 5th best elusiveness rating.
R5-164 OT Luke Goedeke – A RT project that gives depth, he had the lowest pressure rate allowed in true pass sets in college this year.
R6-204 P Jordan Stout – My real punt god will be gone by here but whatever, I’m taking him. And he flew in his 40.