I started this article before the Barnett re-signing which may be putting Philly fully over the edge (no pun intended) on the offseason. This article may have some more relevance now though as it is sort of a preventative mental health post ahead of the draft to ready ourselves.
I wrote recently that the actual draft rarely goes the way the consensus pre-draft mocks look and there are very real scenarios where what we all want doesn’t happen. Edges fly off the board quickly… Howie continues to settle for mid-round corners…value isn’t there on a receiver… the Eagles think they are set at linebacker and safety…
This article will live by the old “better to be a pessimist because you are either right or pleasantly surprised” adage. It builds on the prior post on mock draft accuracy and goes deeper on some options where I forced myself to think of what positions without apparent need could be selected high and why they would make sense. None of these I actually hate… they wouldn’t be what I would do based on need, but every player I list below I absolutely love. They would all make the Eagles better. And hopefully it prepares me for whatever surprises happen on draft weekend when the guys I really want – the Jordan Davis’, Trent McDuffies, Lewis Cines, Dax Hills, Jermaine Johnsons, and Christian Watsons – don’t happen.
Oh, and I’m not getting into a round 1 QB here at all.
A round 1 tackle
I wrote on a tackle here before so will be brief. Would Howie go tackle? Sure, while we will get angry on a pick not matching what we think, none of us would really be surprised. But should they go tackle? It’s not a need, but it is by no means crazy to think they could depending on how the board falls and if Howie has some guys graded high.
Both Lane and Mailata are playing at a high level. Mailata was recently committed to and is young. Lane is under contract until 2025 and really hard to move anytime before 2024 or 2025 even if they wanted to. But injuries happen – Lane has missed 17 games over the last 3 seasons and depth behind Lane and Mailata is marginal. Dillard can’t play RT and then you have Le’Raven Clark and Jack Driscoll.
Using a first on a player that you don’t have a reasonable plan to get on the field is not a good use of capital, but there are players that could still play. I wrote about Trevor Penning previously but will add another name here in Darian Kinnard. Both are tackles that could still hit the field by moving to guard and be positioned longer-term for RT. I don’t love shuffling linemen between positions but it is an option. And many differ on if Penning and Kinnard are tackles or guards in the NFL.
Likelihood: I think this is pretty low, it would take a lot of the defensive line, receivers, and corners to be off the board by one of the Eagles picks. But if there isn’t a run on quarterbacks early, in Howie’s eyes the best player available later in the 1st could be a tackle.
RB1 in the second round
I have to catch myself from dismissing drafting running backs anywhere high as I, like so many, think it is generally a bad idea. But would it be crazy for the Eagles to take Breece Hall at 51 if he is sitting there? I am sure they will take some RB depth but I am talking about taking the top RB and first off the board. Reasons this could happen:
Running backs still go high
No matter what we think and how low we all mock RBs, they go surprisingly high year-after-year. Here are the pick locations of the first two running backs drafted since 2010:
| | RB1 | RB2 |
| 2021 | R1-24: PIT – Najee Harris | R1-25: JAC – Travis Etienne |
| 2020 | R1-32: KC – Clyde Edwards-Helaire | R2-35: DET – D’Andre Swift |
| 2019 | R1-24: LVR – Josh Jacobs | R2-53: PHI – Miles Sanders |
| 2018 | R1-2: NYG – Saquon Barkley | R1-27: SEA – Rashaad Penny |
| 2017 | R1-4: JAC – Leonard Fournette | R1-8: CAR – Christian McCaffrey |
| 2016 | R1-4: DAL – Ezekiel Elliott | R2-45: TEN – Derrick Henry |
| 2015 | R1-10: LAR – Todd Gurley | R1-15: LAC – Melvin Gordon |
| 2014 | R2-54: TEN – Bishop Sankey | R2-55: CIN – Jeremy Hill |
| 2013 | R2-37: CIN – Giovani Bernard | R2-48: PIT – Le’Veon Bell |
| 2012 | R1-3: CLE – Trent Richardson | R1-31: TB – Doug Martin |
| 2011 | R1-28: NO – Mark Ingram | R2-38: ARI – Ryan Williams |
| 2010 | R1-9: BUF – CJ Spiller | R1-12: LAC – Ryan Mathews |
I included the first two RBs taken because many will just point to the ridiculously high picks of Ezekiel and Saquon. But even those years, the next RB was taken at picks 27 and 45. The first RB taken has a median pick location of 17. Pick 17! Only twice since 2010 has a running back NOT been taken in the 1st and six times two have been taken in the 1st. The latest that RB1 went off the board in the last 10 years was pick 54 in 2014. And contrary to what most probably believe, this isn’t a “well, that was years ago when teams valued RBs higher”… the draft capital allocated to the top 5 RBs has barely changed over the past 10 years.
Sirianni is connected to Iowa State
Sirianni’s college teammate, Matt Campbell, is the current Iowa State head coach. Maybe a past connection is overthinking it, but we know Nick and the Eagles love guys they have some connection to (Nick’s coaching staff, Anthony Harris, this entire offseason, etc.) And the Eagles have already been connected at the Combine and pro days to two Iowa State draft prospects this year: Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar (more on Kolar shortly).
But what about Miles and Gainwell?
But what about Miles? Sanders has missed 4 games each of the last two seasons and while nobody knows what Howie will do, I highly doubt Sanders gets a second contract. If Breece Hall falls to them, do they trade Sanders in the summer for a late pick and save another $1.2M on the cap?
And what about Gainwell? He probably isn’t an every down back and if Miles is moved, Gainwell keeps his role. But he is much more of a pass catcher and could play a bigger role there – in 2021, he had 50 pass targets vs. 69 rush attempts. And it wasn’t just passes-that-were-really-runs out of the backfield – Gainwell lined up in the slot or out wide 20% of the time.
Breece could be the BPA
Breece Hall has a current expected draft position around 40 and if, for some reason, he is available at or near 51, he would almost definitely be the best player available. Howie has repeated that they will draft the best players on their board and he is not averse to taking a RB – Miles Sanders was at pick 53 just a few years ago. Hall is a big, every down back that can catch and the Eagles were, whether by choice or necessity, a running team last year.
This is one of my favorite clips from Matt Alkire on Breece. Plenty of big and flashy run clips out there, this isn’t one of them but it makes me think “what would Miles have done here? Would he have bounced outside to the left and turned it into nothing?”
Likelihood: This would be in the “not high but higher than most think” category. It would take some stars aligning – I don’t think Hall will make it to 51 and I doubt the Eagles move up for a RB, but if RBs fell this year and the Eagles find themselves with a pick in a location of value, I could see it.
A day 2 tight end
Again a position that is not viewed as a need with Goedert, Stoll, and Tyree Jackson but the Eagles still run one of the highest rates of 12 (25%) and 13 personnel (10%) in the league. While that alone doesn’t mean they will continue to or should, they have had success in multi-tight end sets with the second best successful play rate in the NFL behind the Chiefs. They were very run-heavy out of multiple TE groupings, especially after week 6 when Ertz was traded, running 70% of the time, also 2nd highest in the league.
Tyree has all the potential in the world but is still unproven and I wonder how much he will even see the field this year after his ACL tear. Stoll is a guy. Would the Eagles take a tight end somewhere on day 2? Maybe. I’ll give two options:
Trey McBride – TE1 in the class with an all-around game and near the top of every statistical category
- 2nd with 2.78 a Y/RR and 2nd against man coverage with a 2.64 Y/RR
- Top rated blocking TE prospect with over 1,100 blocking snaps in college career
- 5.0 YAC/reception which is in the neighborhood of players like Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Skyy Moore this year
I wasn’t going to post a blocking clip but he is incredibly impressive blocking and takes it seriously as a part of his game. But there is clip after clip of him hauling balls in like this:
Charlie Kolar – one of “my guys” and somebody I have mocked several times, not as high on TE boards but I believe will draft a lot higher than expected:
- 4th with a 2.08 Y/RR but led college TEs with a 3.36 Y/RR vs. man coverage
- Highly athletic, ranking 24th out of 965 TEs since 1987
- 63 receptions this year were most by a Power 5 TE since 2017
- 2.9% career drop rate
- Led TE prospects with a 66.7% contested catch rate
- 34.5″ arms, only two tackles in 2021 had longer arms
Of all the clips I posted, this is my favorite and most relevant to the Eagles and it isn’t even a clip of Kolar playing. Watch this story of Kolar playing pickleball with Coach Campbell and tell me this is not 100%, absolutely a lock Nick Sirianni guy. And, Kolar is an ex-basketball player that played with Trae Young in high school – I just wonder what the Nick / Charlie pre-Combine meeting basketball games were like.
Likelihood: A round 2 TE I think would be pretty low likelihood but a R3-4 pick I think has a much higher chance than most give it. We always think wide receiver when we hear Howie say they want to surround Hurts with weapons, but TE is an important position to them and they get two on the field. Like Breece Hall above, Kolar has the Iowa State / Sirianni connection.
And I’ll just share this from anonymous ex-Eagles scout / potential Howie burner account @TheHonestNFL (joking on the burner account comment):
I want to state again before people hate all of the above, this is not what I am recommending, I would prioritize high the same positions others are looking at – defensive line, corner, wide receiver, safety. I’m just putting out some picks that maybe shouldn’t surprise us. And these are not “bad” picks, just picks that are not priority needs. They are all really good players. Tackle and to a lesser degree tight end are premium positions (but tight end is increasing recently as shown by free agency prices) that you can defend investing on in the draft.
If you forced me to pick at least 1 or 2 of the above, I would mock something like this with Breece Hall in the 2nd and Charlie Kolar in the 3rd:
R1-15: EDGE George Karlaftis
R1-16 Traded to Buffalo for R1-25, R3-89, 2023 2nd – BUF takes WR Treylon Burks
R1-19: S Daxton Hill
R1-25: WR Christian Watson
R2-51: RB Breece Hall
R3-83: CB Cam Taylor-Britt
R3-89: TE Charlie Kolar
The Eagles walk away with a monster edge, a versatile safety that does exactly what they want and can play all over, a top zone corner, the draft’s best running back, a big, freak athlete at receiver, and a big, fast, tight end that would be an absolute weapon.