It is almost impossible right now to find an Eagles mock that doesn’t include the same players. One of the EDGEs – Jermaine Johnson, Travon Walker, David Ojabo, and George Karlaftis… a corner like Andrew Booth or Trent McDuffie or recently, a lot hopefully have Stingley falling to them… a LB like Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean… or a big-bodied receiver like Treylon Burks.
But what if a lot of these players are gone which is increasingly looking likely? Or what if the Eagles just have different plans? In 2020 we all collectively lost our minds at home as they went with the wrong receiver and a round 2 quarterback seemingly out of nowhere?
A look back at the Eagles top picks vs. expectations
Two sites that aggregate mock drafts to get the most commonly mocked players are Grinding The Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database. Here are the Eagles most commonly mocked picks the past 3 years:
| Year | Round | Top Mocked Picks | Actual Pick |
| 2019 | 1 | CB DeAndre Baker OT Yodny Cajuste S Dionte Thompson | OT Andre Dillard |
| 2 | S Darnell Savage WR Marquise Brown S Chauncey Gardner | RB Miles Sanders | |
| 2020 | 1 | WR Justin Jefferson WR Henry Ruggs WR Tee Higgins | WR Jalen Reagor |
| 2 | CB Jeff Gladney WR KJ Hamler WR Brandon Aiyuk | QB Jalen Hurts | |
| 2021 | 1 | TE Kyle Pitts WR Jaylen Waddle WR DeVonta Smith | WR DeVonta Smith |
| 2 | LB Nick Bolton CB Asante Samuel Jr WR Terrace Marshall | IOL Landon Dickerson |
Of the first two rounds over the past 4 years, only once was a top three mocked player actually the pick – DeVonta in 2021. And that required a trade-up when draft day actually came. Two other times the right position was mocked: in 2019 tackle Yodny Cajuste was the second most frequently mocked player when Dillard was selected and in 2020 we all know what happened at pick 21… Half of these players weren’t even available at the Eagles pick (8 of the 16 commonly mocked players).
There are a few things I’ve learned and adjusted thinking on:
1. It really is about the trenches: David (only partially) jokes that you could mock only DL or OL and be right most of the time. In the Howie era, 7 of 13 R1 picks and 9 of 23 R1 and R2 picks have been on the lines.
2. Expect surprises: The Eagles always “surprise” the fans compared to the mocks and I’m talking about which positions are taken, not Reagor vs. Jefferson. Corner has been a top need and top mocked player each of the last 3 years and wasn’t taken. After Howie famously declared “are they healthy?” as one of his draft pillars in 2020, he drafts Landon Dickerson in 2021 (who I loved but wrongly wouldn’t mock because of this). Taking Hurts in 2020 after committing to Wentz. Goedert when we had Ertz.
3. Don’t ignore traits: I was one of many that wanted Terrace Marshall in the 2nd last year and Matt Alkire reminded me that the Eagles won’t take a WR that can’t block. Same with running backs. And for LBs and CBs, they better tackle. The Eagles have also consistently taken highly athletic prospects – just go search RAS for green and you will up your chances of picking their players. And lastly, character / culture is always important.
A very different but very Eagles 3 round mock
So what could we be wrong on this year? With three firsts, it is surprising how consistent the names mocked to the Eagles are right now. Both Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database show Eagles draft expectations in the 1st are heavily EDGEs (Jermaine Johnson, Ojabo, Karlaftis), LBs (Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean), C (Tyler Linderbaum even after Kelce announced his return), and CB (Andrew Booth).
This started for my own sanity – to think about a draft that isn’t what we are all thinking and prepare myself when I hated the picks. Which happens way more often that not. In the draft below, I try to think like Howie and get a draft where inthe first two days, no EDGEs and no linebackers are taken and an offensive line pick at a position without apparent need. But I could see Howie doing all of this. And strangely, I would actually walk away happy with these players. For each pick I did my best Howie impersonation, explaining each pick reflecting his philosophy and draft track record:
Day 1
The first round does not go well for those of us that want one of the EDGEs or CBs as both positions have runs ahead of us when QBs aren’t taken high. The following are off the board by the Eagles first pick:
- Five EDGEs – Hutchinson, Walker, Johnson, Thibodeaux, and Karlaftis
- Three CBs – Gardner, Stingley, and McDuffie
- Three OTs – Ekwonu, Neal, and Cross
- One DT – Jordan Davis
- One S – Kyle Hamilton
- One WR – Garrett Wilson
R1-15: DL Devonte Wyatt, UGA
Question: “At pick 15, there were a lot of great players available – what was the thought process when the Eagles were on the clock?”
Howie: “Last year I promised if the highest graded player sitting there was a linemen, we would take them and Devonte is a great example of that. We thought he would go in the top 10 and definitely thought he wouldn’t make it past Baltimore so it wasn’t a hard decision for our team when we were up. We see a lot of Fletch in Devonte and like Milton last year, he can affect play from multiple positions.”
Interesting fact: Asked at the Combine if he could play running back, Wyatt replied “Easily. If they put me back there I’d look like Derrick Henry.”
R1-16: OT/G Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
Question: “Tackle wasn’t a top need going into the draft with Lane and Jordan, why did you see it as a need here?”
Howie: “We always say tackle is the second most important position behind quarterback and it’s a position we will always value highly. Unfortunately, almost every year we have seen the need to have quality depth as injuries happen. Trevor brings the flexibility to play tackle and guard which we value highly. And he is an amazing young man – a great leader, he plays incredibly hard, and our coaches fell in love with him at the Senior Bowl… if you watch him play, he’s a guy we frankly didn’t want to have to face on another team.”
Interesting fact: Trevor models his game after Lane Johnson and they share freakishly similar athletic profiles:
Two WRs come off the board at picks 17 and 18 with the Chargers taking Chris Olave and the Saints taking Jameson Williams.
R1 (trade down): S Lewis Cine, UGA
Question: “Safety is a position that the Eagles have never prioritized high before – what drives the change this year?”
Howie: “Well, for a lot of years we’ve been lucky to have some great players like Malcolm and Rodney at the position that allowed us to invest elsewhere. But safety is a bit different role now in Jonathan’s scheme – they are going to play deep a lot but it relies on safeties to be able to come in quickly against the run. It isn’t a free safety, strong safety world anymore and you need players that are athletes, have high-level play recognition, and understands how to work in coordination with the rest of the secondary. There wasn’t a player in college better at everything we need a safety to do than Lewis. And when you get to sit down and talk with him, you realize how much a student of the game he is, what type of leader he is even on a team filled with talent like Georgia was.”
Interesting fact: No other safety – not Hamilton, not Daxton, not Brisker, none – both played as many deep safety snaps (65% of snaps) while also being as productive in run support (11 run stops).
Day 2
Safety, linebacker, and EDGE dominate day 2 mocks for the Eagles right now and while Howie has widened the positions drafted in round 2, the positions drafted most often lean towards the premium positions and offensive weapons – 5 CBs, 3 WRs, 3 LBs, and 2 TEs.
R2-51: WR Christian Watson, North Dakota State
Question: “After missing out on receivers in free agency, did receiver become a more pressing need here?”
Howie: “We are confident in our receiver room right now but as we said earlier in the offseason, we want to continue to add skill players to the offense but won’t force a position or a style of receiver as that hasn’t worked in the past. When our pick came up, we saw a player that has such unique size and speed and does all the things you want – he runs, he blocks, he plays the way you want – we thought he could go in the first. Every year we see that it’s very hard to get receivers in free agency because everybody wants them, it’s just not sustainable to try to find them that way – when you have a player like Christian that falls to you, you have to take him.”
Interesting fact: Watson holds the 5th best (out of 2,557) Relative Athletic Score profile among receivers since 1987.
R3-83: CB Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska
Question: “You’ve been collecting a lot of young talent at corner, how does Cam fit in?”
Howie: “We love the guys we have in right now but you can never have too many corners. We got to meet Cam at the Senior Bowl and you just see a player that loves to play, plays hard all of the time, and has the high confidence you want. When you look at his time at Nebraska, he played both man and zone and at a high level, he understands the handoffs and communication needed in the secondary, and he was really good against the run. He’s a player we can see coming in and fitting this defense.”
Interesting fact: He is best in the Big Ten with 18 interceptions and PBUs over the past two seasons.
Hope you enjoyed this, it is meant to not be just another mock, but a different take looking at how consensus is rarely right, what could happen, and how I think Howie could approach the draft based on his history and philosophy.