We (David and Greg) decided to do a dueling mock draft. Picks were randomly assigned so you will see each of us having small runs and we decided on no trades although did debate one or two. I have to say this was really fun to do – both to research and think through each of the teams and then wait for (and sometimes get angry at) the picks ahead of you. And, it is interesting how it turned out as it is definitely not chalk picks – there are some surprising falls and some interesting runs on positions.
So, with that, Jacksonville is on the clock…
1: Jacksonville – Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan
Greg: I wanted to take a WR here because what the heck, get one more after spending a hundred-plus million dollars in two years. But no, this looks all but certain to be Aidan. And why not? He had a silly 25% pass rush win rate and averaged over 5 pressures a game. Jacksonville, 31st against the pass, could use him.
2: Detroit – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame
David: Simply stated, he is the best player in the draft. I do not believe I have ever said that about a safety. Hamilton can do it all on the field. He can stop the run, he can play in the slot, or he can stay in the backfield making game changing plays. He would give the Lions a talent at the position that has rarely been seen. A real life unicorn.
3. Houston – Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Greg: Damn David, you were supposed to take an EDGE, I wanted Hamilton here. Well… Lovie Smith, who will also serve as the Texans DC, said two important things recently: turnovers are a priority and they need to get the fans excited again. Gardner is exactly what is needed… he fits the defense and is dangerous to throw at, nabbing an interception once every 15 targets in his college career… 15… that’s insane. And Sauce is the best on this list to sell stadiums full of jerseys.
My most non-chalk AND favorite pick – absolutely love the fit
4. New York Jets – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
David: The Jets only had 33 sacks last year and desperately need someone who can consistently get after the opposing QB. Their new HC is a former defensive coordinator. This just seems to make sense. Kayvon is a dynamic edge rusher and should be on the field causing havoc from game one.
5. New York Giants – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Greg: When new GM Joe Schoen was at the Bills with Brandon Beane, their seven picks in the first two rounds were Josh Allen, a linebacker, and five linemen – it’s not hard to figure out his philosophy. Really boring pick that is expected everywhere but can’t argue with Ekwonu. The Giants OL is 28th in the league in pass block win rate and desperately need to improve.
6. Carolina – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
David: The Panthers allowed 52 sacks in 2021, and Offensive Tackle is a huge need. There will be plenty of offensive line help available in the 2023 draft to protect Malik. Sam Darnold will probably be a placeholder for much of the upcoming season. Willis has the highest ceiling of all the QB’s in this draft. I really wanted Cross, but you never know when you will draft this high again. If you believe the QB of the future is there, you have to take him. Lance Zierlein compared him to having Jay Cutlers arm and Jalen Hurts build and running ability.
7. New York Giants – Derek Stingley, CB, LSU
Greg: Most people have the Giants going pass rusher here but in new defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s scheme, corners are integral to pressure and will need to defend without help. In what will be a heavy blitzing scheme, Martindale will run near a league high amount of Cover 1 and Cover 0 man (last year only one team ran more man than Martindale’s Ravens). There may not be a better corner in this class than Stingley for what the Giants will try to run.
8. Atlanta – Drake London, WR, USC
David: This will be the first of a run on wide receivers. Whoever ends up being the starting QB in Atlanta (Mariotta), they are going to need someone to throw to. Outside of all world tight end Kyle Pitts, the Falcons are devoid of pass catchers.
9. Seattle – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
David: I wanted Mailik Willis for the Seahawks, but without a trade thats isn’t going to happen. Cross is the best pass blocking tackle in the draft. The blindside will be covered for whoever ends up the starting QB in Seattle.
10. New York Jets – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
David: Garrett is a great route runner, and offers playmaking ability once the ball is in his hands. Zach Wilson will have a much better chance to prove he should be the long term QB in NY with Garrett at his disposal.
11: Washington – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
David: Unless a QB falls to the newly named Washington football team that they are high on, they will getting a weapon for Commander Carson to throw to. Olave is a legit deep threat who also possesses very good route running abilities. McLaurin and Olave will be a dynamic receiving duo. Wentz will have to put up numbers in this offense or risk an early exit from his third team.
12: Minnesota – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Greg: The new Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is my type of guy – huge analytics guy, ex-Wall Street. The only person mentioned in this entire article that I love more than Kwesi is Trent McDuffie.
Three reasons this fits for Minnesota: Adofo-Mensah will know the value of positions in the draft and corner will be highly valued… this is the best match of BPA and need as the Vikings desperately need secondary help… and new defensive coordinator Ed Donatelli is another Vic Fangio guy who will want intelligent, athletic, and flexible corners. McDuffie is that guy. I don’t care about the arm length – what is play recognition and athleticism worth compared to literally 0.25 inches of arm length?
We will see in many, many years but I am firmly planted and receiving mail on the “McDuffie may end up having the best CB pro career from this draft” hill. The only reason not to make this pick was to leave McDuffie for my upcoming Eagles pick at 15.
Already too long of a write-up but he’s my guy and one last clip – the thing I love is if you continuously key on him, he “sees” and reacts to the play at a completely different speed than anybody else on the field. I swear he has somebody stealing plays.
Observation: Greg loves McDuffie as much as I love my dogs.
13: Houston – Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Greg: What the heck is Travon still doing here – I have regrets… Houston is a mess, it’s the team that I think will probably make the most head-scratching choices in the draft as GM Nick Caserio still holds on to too much of the Patriots / Belichick draft philosophy (which hasn’t been good). But it’s a crime that Travon is here, he is crazy athletic which fits what Caserio seeks out and helps Lovie Smith remake the defense.
14: Baltimore – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Greg: Man, what a drop of Neal. The Ravens LT retired and their new LT (who isn’t good) asked for a trade. They brought in Morgan Moses in free agency for the right side, which is an underrated move. Here they cannot pass up Neal. They need defensive line help but will get it later.
15: Philadelphia – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Greg: So excited for this pick. I live in Atlanta now and pass this billboard every time I go downtown:
Yes, size does matter Jordan… That he is sun-blocking is one thing, that he is such an athletic freak is just impossible.
A week ago this would not have been a frequently mocked pick here, especially with Jermaine Johnson still on the board (but we will see what David does next), but with the cut and then re-signing of Fletch, the need for DT has been recognized as a bigger need. Gannon wants to pressure with 4 and they have an underrated need to improve the run defense. The biggest issue with this pick is Davis is going to have to pick a different number than 99.
16: Philadelphia – Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
David: He climbed more boards, even Jordan Davis’ pictured above, than any other player this mock draft season. He impressed scouts and fans alike at the senior bowl and again at the combine. He is a tough exciting pass rusher the Eagles can pair with Sweat over the next five years. The pick will also relegate a 34 year old Brandon Graham and the newly resigned Derek Barnett to rotational roles. The addition of Haason Reddick coupled with the above edge rushers will give the aenemic pass rush they had in 2021 a huge jolt!
17: LA Chargers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
David: With Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the edge , why not add another pass disruptor. If you do not double team him, he will create pressure from the interior. If you do, both Bosa and Mack will feast. In a division that is boasting 4 Pro Bowl QB’s, the need to neutralize them is at a premium.
18: New Orleans – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Greg: I had this pick made before Terron Armstead signed with Miami which is how much I like Penning. I also recently mocked him to the Eagles which I don’t think is super likely, but also don’t think is a crazy thought. Like the Eagles, the Saints continue to invest high on both lines every year and a tackle just became even more important to them. Penning is so fun to watch with the nastiness he plays with – there is clip after clip like this:
19: Philadelphia – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
David: The Eagles went into the offseason looking to acquire an established veteran to help out the receiver room. They did sign head coach favorite, Pascal, who will help with invaluable information regarding teaching there playbook and nuances of the position. BUT they will also need to add another weapon. Treylon Burks is that weapon. He is a huge target and can line up in the slot or on the outside. He should complement both Smith and Quez while also giving Jalen Hurts another weapon to grow with.
20: Pittsburgh – Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Greg: If you want to understand the Steelers draft philosophy, just do the exact opposite of what Howie or the entire analytics community would do. Since 2013, GM Kevin Colbert’s 1st round picks are five linebackers, a safety, traded another 1st for a safety, a corner, and a running back. You have to go back to 2012 to see any serious investment in the OL, which explains a lot right now.
This pick is one where I am doing what the Steelers would do. Daxton is one of my favorite players in the draft but the Steelers OL is a trash heap that needs a Linderbaum or Kenyon Green. Many have them taking a QB even with the Trubisky signing but Colbert retires right after the draft – I don’t think he will pick a QB for the next GM especially with this draft class and missing out on Malik to Carolina.
My “I will probably regret this pick in April when they actually take a QB” pick
21: New England – Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
David: With the Patriots losing JC Jackson, it was inevitable that they draft his replacement. Booth has good size and is physical. With the receivers being added in the AFC East over the past 2 seasons, this is one of the easiest picks I’ve made.
22: Green Bay – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Greg: I probably cannot safely enter Wisconsin after failing to take a receiver here but the value is with Lloyd. As part of ARod returning, I am sure there is some commitment to get him weapons, but I am also sure that GM Brian Gutenkunst will stick to whatever is best for the organization. And his results are good – his round 1 picks were CB Jaire Alexander, LB Rashan Gary, CB Eric Stokes, and QB Jordan Love. Even the Love pick, which is widely viewed as a bad pick, has value given the constant uncertainty they have had with Rodgers. There will be time to get a receiver later in this class.
My “I feel like the Joker” pick
23: Arizona – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Greg: This is purely best player available and not sure why Karlaftis is still on the board here. Arizona did lose 20% of their total 2021 pressures with Chandler Jones leaving in free agency and Karlaftis will be necessary restocking as Arizona continues to compete with the Rams in the West.
24: Dallas – Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
David: The Cowboys love drafting linebackers, so Dean could be an option here, but they also need OL help. Green is huge, can play tackle if needed and would give Dallas stability and protection for Dak.
25: Buffalo – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
David: Allen has one of the best arms in the league, and Williams is the best deep threat in the draft. Seems like a better pairing than wings and hot sauce.
26: Tennessee – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Greg: BOOM! Finally another quarterback. (Apologies in advance as I will probably write too much here but think this pick deserves added reasoning).
This kinda feels like “Green Bay drafting Jordan Love” or “New England drafting Jimmy G” but Tannehill isn’t Rodgers or Brady. I am not a Tannehill hater – he has way outplayed what most give him credit for. But there are two reasons I am making this pick if I am Tennessee.
First, while I just was complimenting Tannehill, he has also been in one of the most favorable QB situations, facing the highest percentage of stacked boxes in the NFL because of Derrick Henry (passes against stacked boxes generate almost 4x the EPA/play as light boxes). So he is being greatly helped by how teams play against the Titans. But turnovers have been a problem for him. He was 20th in the league in interception rate with 17 picks this year and 28th in the league in turnover-worthy plays (TWP). And this is not new – he has a worse career TWP percentage than Wentz, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff. Tannehill for all his good is 2-3 in the playoffs averaging 150 yards/game with 7 TDs and 5 interceptions. Statistically he has had one good playoff game (vs. KC in the 2020 AFC Championship) but if you strip out garbage time, that wasn’t even a good game – almost half of his passing came in the 4th quarter, down 35-17.
Second, this is a unique opportunity to get a QB late in the first. Is this QB class weaker? Yeah, probably. Does it still make sense to take one here? Yes, I think so. The investment is much, much less than a top pick.
Tannehill is only under contract until 2023 and a decision is going to be needed on him soon. He carries a bigger-than-Matt-Ryan dead cap in 2022 but is very movable in 2023. Let Ridder develop for a year behind Tannehill. If Tannehill shines, great, you have a backup or trade Ridder. But if the Titans need a QB which I think they are going to, you have a relatively low cost option here on a QB that has a lot of NFL traits. Take a shot at developing him.
My most “not what they will do but what I would do” pick
27: Tampa Bay – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan
Greg: Tampa Bay addressed so many of their needs in free agency with the primary area left being defensive line where they appear to be letting some aging, probably peaked, vets depart. With Brady returning, Tampa’s goal is nothing less than winning the Super Bowl. Ojabo may not be ready until later in the season but given the mess their division will be, they will be more focused on peaking late. Ojabo would have gone in the top half of the round without his injury.
28: Green Bay – Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Greg: Ok settle down Green Bay, we got your receiver. And I went with the big-bodied, downfield, athletic freak. I know, FCS and all, but Watson has a crazy 4.33 yards per route run (1st) and a better YAC/reception than everybody except Jameson and Treylon. He has to clean up drops but I just want to see Rodgers throwing to him.
29: Kansas City – Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
David: Kaiir is one of my favorite corners in the draft. Might be best suited as a press or zone corner. His stock fell some due to a slight drop off in production his final year at Florida. Will need to be more aggressive against the run, but at only 20 years old, he has a lot of time to develop. This could prove to be a late round steal for Big Red and the Chiefs.
30: Kansas City – Logan Hall, EDGE, Houston
Greg: The Chiefs double up on defense which is what they need to do. The story of their 2021 is Mahomes’ interceptions – if he doesn’t throw one of the two he had in the AFC Championship, they are in the Super Bowl again. But their real need is on defense – they were 23rd against the pass and 20th against the run and with the offensive arms race in the AFC. And they risk losing almost 2,000 snaps on the defensive line in free agency. Hall played inside and outside but most likely will stick on the end. This is very much a pick of need.
My biggest “Reach / Pick Out of Need”
David: I am most impressed that Greg made it through the mock resisting his urge to select Punt God, Jordan Stout. I think he really would consider him as high as round 3.
Greg: Can I still change a pick?
31: Cincinnati – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
David: I had to review every name on the list and check it twice to believe Linderbaum was still here. Tyler is the best center in the draft, and can start immediately. He probably should have gone a lot higher. Bengals get a steal here.
The “finally ends the awkward camera shots of this year’s falling player” pick
32: Detroit – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
David: Matt just turned 23, has a strong arm, a quick release and is a dual threat QB. He is much more mobile than Goff, and can extend plays, which is becoming a trait that is more useful in today’s NFL. I do not know why he is falling down boards, but Detroit could do a lot worse than to get a franchise QB with the last pick of the first round.
There are always surprises on which names sneak into the 1st with Logan Hall (Expected Draft Position of 46) and Christian Watson (EDP 45) both finding their way in. And of course this year’s wildcard position – the QBs – had several fall out that could have gone.
Couple of interesting points:
- The premium positions all were very close to historical averages for round 1: 5 corners (average is 5.0), 6 receivers (average is 6.4), 4 tackles (average is 4.4), with EDGE standing out with 7 taken average is 4).
- Safety stands out with 2 taken where most years none are. The last time a 1st round safety was taken was 2019 when both Jonathan Abram and Darnell Savage went.
- Neither of us took a RB and we all push RBs down boards but only twice since 2010 has a RB not been taken in the 1st. Should somebody have taken Breece?
- And lastly on the QBs, this draft looks like 2014 which may make sense – both drafts had 3 taken and both had them taken late overall. In 2014, Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater went at picks 3, 22, and 32 (with what turned out to be the year’s best QB, Derek Carr, going at the beginning of the 2nd), weirdly similar to where Malik, Ridder, and Corral landed above.
As always thanks for reading.