While there is a lot of focus on the missed 1st round picks recently, the Eagles have had a lot of great picks later in the draft. Here is a look at the best value draft picks by the Eagles since 2000. Not the best players, but the players that have outperformed their draft slot the most. I have used Approximate Value (AV) as a measure here – if you are not familiar with AV, it is the best single metric across all positions to define a player’s value.
The Eagles have had many great players picked in the mid or late rounds, starting with a player that is not only the best Eagles draft value pick, but one of the best across the entire league…
1. Jason Kelce
Draft: 2011 R6-191
Career value vs. expected: 86AV vs 8AV expected
Not only the best draft value for the Eagles, but one of the best draft values of any team – since 2000, Kelce is statistically the 8th best draft pick value out of 5,710 draft picks, a 99.9th percentile draft pick.
Not only has Kelce been so good on the field but has done it with longevity and consistency, playing 97% of snaps over his 10 year career, four times playing every snap in a season, and only once (his rookie season) being outside the top 50 in blocking efficiency and seven times being top 20 and three times top 10.
| Year | % of Snaps | Blocking Efficiency | Rank |
| 2021 | 89% | 98.4 | 12 |
| 2020 | 100% | 98.3 | 17 |
| 2019 | 100% | 97.4 | 46 |
| 2018 | 95% | 99.2 | 2 |
| 2017 | 95% | 98.3 | 15 |
| 2016 | 100% | 97.7 | 29 |
| 2015 | 100% | 98.6 | 8 |
| 2014 | 94% | 98.4 | 14 |
| 2013 | 99% | 98.8 | 7 |
| 2012 | 79% | 97.4 | 53 |
Kelce’s career would have made a first round pick a good value but he was taken at 191 where the average draft pick generates 8AV of value, is a 15th percentile player, and lasts around 4 years in the league with under 1 year starting. To put these numbers in context, the average player taken around Kelce’s draft slot is somebody like DB Jaylen Watkins, LB Andy Studebaker, RB Ryan Moats, and G and ex-fireman Danny Watkins. If you don’t remember half of these players and the other half anger you, that’s the point.
And beyond his play on the field is who he is off the field and what he means to the franchise. Kelce truly has been the conscience of the franchise and is an all-time great Eagle.
2. Brian Westbrook
Draft: 2002 R3-91
Career value vs. expected: 69AV vs 17AV expected
Westbrook was the best player taken in the Eagles best draft class. A total of 260 career AV came out of the Eagles 2002 draft class, 35 better than the next closest class, with pick after pick being impactful NFL players including Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, Sheldon Brown, Raheem Brock, and Westbrook. Westbrook had over 10,000 yards from scrimmage with almost 40% coming in the passing game. Over a 4 year period he was the most important back in the game, averaging 75 receptions, 212 rushes, and almost 1,700 scrimmage yards.
3. Jordan Mailata
Draft: 2018 R7-233
Career value vs. expected: 11AV vs 6AV expected
Mailata has already doubled expected value from his draft slot and he is only just starting his career. If he has a 10 year career, he projects to have the best value career of any 7th rounder since 2000 – the top five right now are Ryan Fitzpatrick (78 AV), Marques Colston (72), Scott Wells (64), Julian Edelman (61), and Breet Keisel (58). Factoring in positional value, Mailata will be one of the best draft picks ever made.
4. Nick Foles
Draft: 2012 R3-88
Career value vs. expected: 31AV vs 18AV expected
Right around Foles’ pick location, the middle to late round 3 area, is where expectations to draft a starter drops off. QBs always generate more value as measured by AV just because of the importance of the position, but even considering that, Foles has outperformed late 3rd round expectations where the average pick is around 18 career AV. Only 10 QBs since 2000 that have been drafted at pick 88 or later have generated more value than Foles, and Tom Brady is the only other one with a Super Bowl out of that group. Foles’ career in aggregate has been good, but his weakness of being such a boom and bust player is also what makes him so valuable – his playoff run is what brought Philly their only Super Bowl.
5. Trent Cole
Draft: 2005 R5-146
Career value vs. expected: 68AV vs 10AV expected
There’s something about those Cincinnati Bearcats as Cole is the second to make this list (Kelce obviously the other). 90.5 career sacks, second best in Eagles franchise history, and a 12% career pass rush pressure rate, Cole was the 218th best value pick since 2000. Looking to the 2022 draft, I take Kelce and Trent as a mandate that we somehow take somebody from Cincy, whether Sauce or Bryan Cook or whomever. Just take one.
6. Jordan Hicks
Draft: 2015 R3-84
Career value vs. expected: 40AV vs 18AV expected
Hicks is another whose career story is not done yet. The Eagles saw his high potential but moved on from him before his second contract due to availability concerns, missing 24 games over 4 years. More of his value came after leaving the Eagles, playing in every game and generating half of his total career value in the past 3 years.
7. Jordan Poyer
Draft: 2013 R7-218
Career value vs. expected: 42AV vs 6AV expected
Poyer, like Hicks, is another where the Eagles made a great pick but let the value accrue elsewhere. Chip Kelly chose Roc Carmichael and Shaun Prater (yeah, exactly, “who?”), who combined for 429 total career snaps, over Poyer on the depth chart who was then released in the offseason. Moved to safety, Poyer has been one of the better safeties in the league, a versatile defender that is exactly the type of safety the Eagles could have used.
8. Todd Herremans
Draft: 2005 R4-126
Career value vs. expected: 51AV vs 14AV expected
The Eagles traded 3 picks – a 5th, 6th, and 7th – to move up and take Herremans, a prospect from powerhouse Saginaw Valley State that was not even invited to the Combine (Saginaw only had one other player, WR Jeff Janis drafted since 2000). Primarily a left guard, Herremans played more than 8,500 snaps over 9 seasons for the Eagles, playing 4 positions across the line including filling in for LT Tra Thomas his rookie season. For his career, Herremans had a 96.9% blocking efficiency which would be top 30-40 most years.
9. LeSean McCoy
Draft: 2009 R2-53
Career value vs. expected: 51AV vs 27AV expected
A 2nd round pick may seem odd on a “best value” list but LeSean was so much better. From my alma mater Pitt, LeSean is the Eagles franchise rushing leader despite being traded away by Chip Kelly after only 6 seasons and playing in a heavier pass era. Of RBs taken since 2000, LeSean is:
- 4th in total accumulated career value (behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, and Matt Forte)
- 2nd in career value for any RB taken at pick 53 or later (behind Frank Gore who accumulated more career AV but had 1,300 more career rushing attempts than LeSean)
His stretch of rushing while with the Eagles was silly as one of only three RBs (Jamaal Charles and Ladanian Tomlinson the other two) with both a positive EPA/rush and a positive Rushing Yards Over Expected (a measure of how many yards a back gained vs. their expected based on game situation). And his 2013 season was one of the better rushing seasons, averaging over 100 yards per game, almost 6 yards per touch, and a silly 0.07 EPA/rush (EPA is almost always negative for rushes because of the increased value of passing in comparison).
10. Jalen Mills
Draft: 2016 R7-233
Career value vs. expected: 24AV vs 6AV expected
Mills may be surprising on this list as he was often criticized for his post-drop finger-wagging or repeated double-move burns, but getting a corner in the 7th round is almost impossible. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to draft, a position that has to be taken high and even then still has a high bust rate. Day 1 and day 2 corners average 25AV through their careers and the Green Goblin is right there with his career still in progress. Of corners taken in the 7th round since 2000, only five – TJ Carrie, Captain Munnerlyn, Cary Williams, Cortland Finnegan, and Mills – have played at least 2,000 snaps at corner and generated 24 or more AV. Of this list, only Cortland Finnegan has had a better career than Mills.
Players to watch:
Besides Mailata, I left off recent draft picks because there isn’t enough history to really judge their value (Mailata has already performed at such a high level for a pick 233 in the draft that you cannot keep him off the list). But of recent draft picks, there are a couple to watch:
Quez Watkins – A R6-200 pick generally has an 8AV career, is an 11th percentile player (a 30th percentile player is a backup – an 11th is an end of roster guy), and a quarter of players taken never even play in a game or make a roster. If he continues having years like his 2021 – 647 yards, 1.51 yards per route run, and the 15th best average depth of target in the league – he will be one of the Eagle’s top draft values.
Josh Sweat – Sweat fell to R4-130 due to concerns on his knee and really broke out in 2021, ending the year with the 3rd highest pass rush win rate among EDGEs and generating 8AV of value in a single season (the average value of players taken around pick 200 is 13AV for their entire careers). Barring injury, Sweat will easily outperform his draft slot by many multiples.