The Eagles should draft a punter in 2022. And no, it shouldn’t be Matt Araiza… the punter to take this year is the real Punt God, Penn State’s Jordan Stout.
I’m definitely at odds with a lot of the analytics community who would jokingly not even roster punters. NFL coaches famously way over-punt – while coaches are getting better (more aggressive) on 4th down decisions each year, NextGenStats’ 4th down go-or-kick model shows that coaches still only make the right decision to go for it on 4th down 53% of the time. While I absolutely agree that teams punt way too often, I am definitely pro-punter and wanted to dig into the analytics of punting ahead of the draft. (If you are here just for Jordan Stout, you can skip ahead to it here).
Credit to the following sources of data I used for this post:
- Puntalytics who runs puntR and has the best punting analytics and thinking right now
- PFF punter data
- NFLfastR for play-by-play data
First, how to value punts
The go-to metric for football analytics is Expected Points Added (EPA) which does not work for punting. As a reminder, EPA compares the actual play value vs. what historical value (points) was generated from that field position, down, and distance. So much of the expected value of a punt lies on the decision to punt before the punter even walks on the field and less on what the punter actually does.
Puntalytics does really nice work on adjusting EPA for punters to eliminate the impact that the decision to punt has. They normalized EPA for punters by comparing what EPA the punt generated vs. the average of all punts from that field position which gives a relative value of how the punter performed vs. other all other similar punts. For this analysis below, EPA+ (similar to baseball’s OPS+) shows the EPA the punter generated vs. what was expected for a punt from that field location.
As an example, in the Rams / Cardinals NFC Wildcard Game, the Rams up 14-0 punted midway through the 2nd quarter on 4th-and-4 from the Cardinals 44 yard line. On a borderline decision where the data leaned towards going for it, Hekker lofted a punt that was downed at the Cardinal 1.
Looking back at all punts over the past 20 years, the average EPA for a punt from the opponent’s 44 yard line is -0.213, one of the worst projected EPA plays. Hekker’s punt generated an EPA of 0.123 for the play, roughly equal to the EPA generated on the average NFL pass. But comparing to the expected EPA for a punt from the 44, Hekker generated an EPA+ of 0.337, a top 3rd percentile punt in that game situation over the past 20 years.
Next, what makes a great punter
Like everything, there is a lot that goes into what makes a great player. But the best punts as measured by punter EPA+ come down primarily to two things: distance of the punt and hang time. Below shows punter EPA+ vs. a composite of punt distance and hang time for the NFL 2021 season (I have eliminated any punt plays that resulted in a fumble or had a penalty as both greatly skew EPA value data).
To the right of the chart are punters that punt far with better hang time, to the left are punters with shorter punts and worse hang time. The correlation with EPA+ is good with an R2 of 0.51 and the outliers are largely explained by blocked punts. Above the size of the circle reflects number of blocked punts with Bailey, Charlton, Edwards, Colquitt, Long, Haack, Mann, Way, Bojorquez and Cooke all having one or more blocked punts. Blocks could be the punter’s fault but are usually more affected by the protection and snap.
(For us Eagles fans, Siposs is in the bottom left quadrant with a -0.205 EPA+… more on Siposs later)
Below is the data for each punter above. The top ten punters have an average composite hang time (HT) and punt distance (DIST) of 180.9 with Bryan Anger at the top with a 202 composite.
Do you draft punters? And where?
Yes, you should draft a punter in the second half of day 3 if you need one.
Last year during the draft I posted some of this data which compares the value of punters drafted vs. expected value from that pick location. Punters clearly have less value than positional players, but they don’t have zero value. And as rounds progress, the value of positional players drops significantly – the chance of getting even a league average player after the 3rd round is pretty low and by the 5th round, the chance of a drafting a league average player is below 20%.
Below shows the 33 punters drafted since 2004 with their career value as measured by AV (Approximate Value) compared to the average value generated by all players taken at that pick location. Above the centerline, the player selected exceeded the average player drafted in their pick location.
Around pick 160, near the middle of the 5th round, is where punters on average begin to consistently exceed the value of other positional players. In the 6th and 7th rounds, punters and kickers are actually the only positions with a positive expected value. The reason is simple – you are drafting P1 in those rounds vs. WR20 or OL30.
Drafting punters earlier than the 5th has not worked out, no matter how great you feel about the player. Nine punters have been drafted before pick 160 and Dickson is the only one that clearly exceeded expected value.
Why the Eagles should draft Penn State’s Jordan Stout
Siposs was bad in his first season with the Eagles, ranking 25th out of 27 punters in the NFL with an EPA+ of -0.205. Neither his average distance (27th in the league) nor his hang time (17th in the league) were good. And this isn’t new – he was exactly the same at Auburn with an ok 4.24 average hang time and a terrible average distance of 38.8 yards. Using the same hang time and distance composite metric above, Siposs had a composite of 164.5 at Auburn, almost identical to his 163.9 pro composite. For fun, if you project his pro EPA+ from his college composite using the regression line (EPA+ = 0.01 * DISTHTCOMP -1.88), he would have projected to a -0.23 pro EPA+, again almost exactly his pro number. Siposs is what he is.
Matt Araiza has all the press right now with his well-shared 80+ yard punts and and many are talking drafting him high, wondering if he can go late day 2 or very early day 3. Araiza is good for sure, but when you look at the top 2022 draft-eligible punters using the same data as above, he is not the best punter in this draft class. Jordan Stout is.
Araiza gets the highlights, but his approach of just kicking as far as possible to push the receiving team back without regard for hang time allows almost a third of his punts to be returned with an average return of 10.5 yards, 8th worst among 2022 punters. Could he adjust his kicks for more loft? Sure. Rutgers’ Korsak is also highly thought of but he has a really concerning hang time that will not work in the NFL. But not talked about enough is the real punt god in the 2022 draft, Jordan Stout.
Stout is clearly the most draftable punter this year.
- He is the only college punter that projects to a positive EPA+ in the pros. His projected 0.064 EPA+ would have been 2nd in the NFL in 2021.
- He is the only college punter with both pro-ready hang time and distance metrics – 4.34 seconds, best in the country, on 44.63 yards.
- He has a quick, short pro delivery and had none of his 100 punt attempts blocked in college.
- And he was the top-rated punter in college for coffin corner punts in 2021.
And Stout isn’t just the best punter in the 2022 draft class, he is the top college punter over the past 5 seasons when looking at hang time and distance (Stout in the top left corner below).
His career stats are nuts, but he showed even more at the Senior Bowl, averaging a 50.5 yard net and a 4.59 second hang time. And there isn’t a better punter at placing the ball and making returns difficult. Here he is from the Senior Bowl earning his coffin corner award with a 59-yard un-returnable punt:
And another near-60 yard punt from the Senior Bowl showing his distance, placement, and over 4.8 second hang time giving the ball enough hang to allow his coverage to be there on the returner.
Stout also kicks, going 34/36 on extra points, 16/23 on field goals in his senior season, and led the nation in kickoff touchback percentage at 90.32%. To be clear – I’m not recommending the Eagles roster only Stout, the days of a player that punts and kicks are gone. But Elliott has missed playing time each of the past two seasons, leading to the glorious two kickoff attempts by Kamu Gruiger-Hill (and I’m not being sarcastic – Kamu did awesome). It is, however, a nice bonus to have somebody that can actually be a backup kicker. Here he is from 57 against my alma mater and setting a PSU record:
The Eagles have picks 161, 165, 192, and 204 in the 2022 draft and I would use any of those on Stout. Where will he go? No idea. If I had to guess, I’d say the 6th and wouldn’t make it to the 7th. Pre-draft projections have him in the 7th but since 2015, the top picks used on punters were 191, 110, 149, 179, and 165.
Do the Eagles need a punter? Absolutely. Will Howie draft him (or any punter)? I really doubt it – Howie has his philosophy on positional value. For as much criticism as Howie gets for missing on top picks, he has been very good in late rounds – the Eagles are 9th in the league since 2010 in actual vs. expected value for picks in rounds 5 through 7. But even with this outperformance, the Eagles have had 5 hits (Kelce, Mailata, Jalen Mills, Beau Allen, and Jordan Poyer) and a couple potentials (Quez, Shaun Bradley, maybe Tarron Jackson) out of 33 picks. They are one of the better teams in the league and their hit rate is between 15% or at tops 25% if the recent picks work out. If you would rather take a chance on another Kelce or Mailata, that is fine, I wouldn’t argue. But Stout is special and worthy of a pick especially when you need a punter.
Stout will be drafted though and whoever drafts him is getting a top-tier pro punter. Maybe Stout won’t match Randall’s 91-yard punt, but he has the ability to be the best punter in franchise history. And the Eagles should take him.