Let me put this out right at the beginning – what I am about to write is not a “the Eagles pass rush is great” article. That argument was going on last week and I do not want to anger Seth… But when you dig into the pass rush data, you see the story is more complicated. Yes, the Eagles need better pass rushers, but the data actually point to the back seven and scheme as well.
What affected the Eagles pass rush?
I had trouble reconciling the Eagles pass rush drop off with some of the deeper pass rush stats. Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR) is a charting of how often defensive players beat their blocks within 2.5 seconds. In 2021, the Eagles:
- As a team were 7th in the league in PRWR at 49%
- Had a top 10 pass rusher in Javon Hargrave who was 7th with a 21.0% pass rush win rate and Josh Sweat who was 50th out of 200 at 14.5%
But the Eagles ability to win against blocks did not result in pressures. The Eagles were:
- 19th in total pressures and 15th in true pass set pressures
- 15th in QB hits
- 19th in hurries
- 31st in total sacks and 15th in true pass set sacks
Opposing QBs got rid of the ball fast
The average time to throw (TTT) for a QB across the league is 2.7 seconds but the Eagles opposing QBs threw the ball much, much quicker. Of their 17 games (I excluded the last regular season game against the Cowboys as starters did not play but included the wildcard game against Tampa), 13 times the opposing QB released the ball below the league average. Only Dak (first Dallas game), Darnold, Garrett Gilbert, and Mike Glennon were above the league average.
And not only did they throw quicker than the league average, 11 QBs threw quicker than their own average release time. And most threw significantly quicker than they did the rest of the season – 3 threw at their fastest rate of the season (Carr, Herbert, and Siemian), 2 threw at their 2nd fastest rate of the season (Mahomes and Zach Wilson), and 4 threw at their 3rd fastest rate (Brady, Daniel Jones, and Bridgewater).
There is obviously a strong correlation between time to throw and pressure across the league – as time to throw drops, so do pressures. Below are 2021 QB average time to throw vs. allowed pressure rate.
The Eagles saw largely the same effect. Below shows each QB they faced in 2021 with their time to throw vs the Eagles on the x-axis and the Eagles pressure rate on the y-axis. The league average TTT is drawn in as the grey vertical line.
The Eagles clearly had a statistical pass rush drop off from 2020 where they were 3rd in the league in pressure rate, 2nd in the league in sacks, 14th in hurries, and 5th in QB hits. But, in 2020 they had almost the same pass rush win rate (it was actually slightly lower at 48%). QBs threw quickly against the Eagles in 2020 and threw even quicker in 2021 as you can see with the leftward shift in 2021 (blue) dots below (left is quicker QB release).
There isn’t a clean answer on what caused the drop-off in 2021, QBs throwing quicker contributed but there were several other probably reasons:
- The Eagles faced slightly better pass blocking teams in 2021 than 2020 with a 1.5% higher pass block win rate among 2021 opponents.
- The defensive scheme clearly contributed – remember Fletcher Cox publicly complaining about dropping into coverage and the excessive CB cushions.
- And probably most significantly, losing Brandon Graham and having his over 400 snaps split up with Ryan Kerrigan, Derek Barnett, and Tarron Jackson. In 2020 BG was 2nd on the team in pass rush win rate at 17.4%, barely below Hargrave’s 17.8% win rate and that was nowhere near replaced.
Gannon’s scheme
I mentioned at the beginning that this was not a defense of the pass rush and it also pointed to other areas of the defense. And the scheme was part of it with Gannon’s defense focusing on a controlled, containing pass rush that creates pressure first. Gannon explained ““… I don’t think just measuring sacks is a good measure as far as how’s your defensive line affecting the game. So I think they’re doing a good job. Yeah, hopefully, we get some more production with sacking the quarterback at times and there’s a lot of different ways to do that.”
I’m not as negative on Gannon as many. The off coverage drove me nuts, he refuses to play dime even though our linebackers were so weak, and and the personnel was not always used to their strengths despite that being the core coaching philosophy entering the season. But the Eagles did limit explosive plays, 5th best in the league in allowed explosive play rate, and forced – by far – the lowest depth of target on pass plays. It is actually the lowest of any defense over the past 3 seasons. Just look at how much lower the Eagles average depth of target was than the rest of the league in 2021 – they aren’t even close to Seattle, the next lowest team:
This has value – the league is about limiting explosive plays. But the issue is that the Eagles were not good enough here. They were 8th worst in the league in EPA allowed on passes less than 5 yards, 8th worst against RB in the passing game, and 2nd worst against TEs. Yes, the pass rush needs to be better, but poor LBs are allowing QBs to just work around the rush. The average time to throw against the Eagles in 2021 was 2.58 seconds – at that pace, no pass rush is going to consistently get there.
Just for fun as a comparison, the Steelers, who have one of the best and most productive pass rushes in the league, face an average time to throw of 2.68 seconds, a full tenth of a second longer than the Eagles and almost at the league average. And when the Steelers face quicker release times, (Burrow, Cousins, Rodgers, Carr), their pressure and sack rates both drop.
Mocking the off-season
Free agents:
The Eagles have $22M of cap and we can assume it gets to $30-35M after some (hopefully selective) restructures. They will need an estimated $8.6M to sign their draft picks, leaving them in the low to mid $20Ms to work with – better than last year, but middle of the league and not an amount that means they will sign massive FAs. The below moves would chew up between $16-20M depending on the WR signed.
- Re-sign S Rodney McLeod (1 yr / $2M) – Epps earned a starting spot, Andrew Harris will depart and it is tough to lose both starters in the same offseason. McLeod will be back on an affordable 1-year.
- Sign LB Josey Jewell (1 yr / $6M) – I refuse to believe Howie will go after Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean so let’s forget that when we get to the draft. Denver has two good LBs, both recovering from torn pecs, and most likely won’t keep both. Solid in coverage and run defense, pairing Jewell with TJ solidifies the LBs and does not put the entire burden on Davion or a rookie.
- Sign DT Tim Settle (1 yr / $4.25M) – There won’t be a ton of snaps available on the interior as long as Cox and Hargrave are around, but Settle is exactly the type of rotational DT Howie covets. The former Hokie and team-with-no-name tackle, Settle has not yet hit 400 snaps in his career but would be the 2nd best pass rusher (13.4% win rate) and highest graded run defender on the Eagles.
- Sign a veteran WR – Target Russell Gage (4 yrs / $30M) or Jamison Crowder (1 yr / $4.5M). I would go after Mike Williams but I don’t see him leaving the Chargers and the Eagles aren’t going to sign a Davante or Godwin. I’m not as high on Allen Robinson as many as he bottom of the league in separation which is not what Hurts needs.
The draft:
R1-15: EDGE Travon Walker UGA
What this entire article is about. He doesn’t have the stats in college (only a 13.8% true pass set win rate) but his athleticism is nuts. A solid run defender, he has work to do on pass rush but will have the time to do so behind BG and Sweat.
R1-16: WR Traylon Burks Arkansas
Yep another 1st round receiver but sunk cost and all… also Howie said he is going to surround Hurts will skill. He’s big, will test crazy (he hit 22.6 mph on the field this year), and plays everywhere – he’s one of my favorite players in the draft. Not sure Burks makes it to 16, depends on how others like Cleveland rank the WRs but he is here and I am taking him.
R1-19: CB Trent McDuffie Washington
The Eagles need a Nelson replacement and while they have not invested in corner high in the past, they will this year. Most have McDuffie lower than I do, but I keep re-watching him trying to find what I don’t like and the only knock is size. He will be another freak tester and is probably the best corner fit for the Eagles scheme. Probably my other favorite in the draft with Burks.
R2-51: DT Devonte Wyatt UGA
Ok, this is the point where most will officially hate this mock as I still haven’t taken a LB or S. But this makes sense. First, Howie prioritizes the line and, second, DT is becoming an urgent need. Hargrave is only under contract for 2022 and Cox is aging. Milton Williams was taken last year but there is nothing behind him. Another freak for his size from Georgia, Wyatt is the only SEC DT that graded above 80 against both the rush and pass and had a 21.8% true pass set win rate. Surprised he was here at 51 but no hesitation with this pick.
R3-83: S Bryan Cook Cincinnati
Sirianni and Gannon’s influence shows up here as the Eagles haven’t taken a safety this high since 2011. The 5th highest graded safety in the FBS, Cook does what the Eagles need – he plays all over but can play deep and still be effective coming in against the run.
R4-121: OG Cole Strange Chattanooga
One of David’s favorites with a recent article here and he has me won over. 1 sack allowed in his entire college career, Strange is a guard that showed some center at the Senior Bowl.
R5-152: RB Hassan Haskins Michigan
If the Eagles are going to be a run-heavy offense, get another RB as I have Boston Scott and Jordan Howard leaving (I’d look to return Howard if he doesn’t get picked up elsewhere). Haskins is a bigger back that had one of the higher rushing yards over expected this year.
R5-160: OT Andrew Stueber Michigan
Back-to-back Wolverines with Stueber, another big (6’7″ 338 lb) developmental RT that only allowed 2 sacks in 785 career dropbacks. He probably moves inside in the NFL but gives the Eagles time to see if he can develop as an eventual RT.
R5-164: WR Velus Jones Jr. Tennessee
It’s always interesting to look at potential draft inefficiencies and one this year could be the 5 or 6 year Covid-related rookies that many teams will pass on for age alone. Jones will be 25 by the start of the season but is fast, hitting 21.75 mph at the Senior Bowl. A good sized receiver at 6’0″ 200 lbs, he is one of the best kick returners in college, something the Eagles have never solved. With the Eagles WR depth chart, there is room to roster him if he can contribute on returns.
R6-204: P Jordan Stout PSU
I wrote here about the Eagles need for a punter, why it makes sense to draft one, and why Stout is the best punter in the draft class, headlines be damned. Do I think Howie will draft him? No. Is Howie wrong? Yes.
All of the above fills some the needed holes on both sides while not being crazy on the salary cap:
Defense:
DL: Cox, Hargrave, Sweat, BG, Milton, Tarron, Tim Settle, Devonte Wyatt, Travon Walker
LB: TJ, Josey Jewell, Davion, Singleton, Johnson, Bradley, Johnson
CB: Slay, Maddox, Trent McDuffie, Zech, Tay
S: McLeod, Epps, K’Von, Bryan Cook
Offense:
WR: Devonte, Quez, Gage or Crowder, Traylon Burks, Reagor, Velus Jones
RB: Sanders, Gainwell, Haskins, Huntley
OL: Mailata, Dickerson, Kelce, Seumalo, Lane, Driscoll, Herbig, Toth, Cole Strange, Andrew Stueber
TE: Goedert, Stoll, Tyree
QB: Hurts
Specialists:
K: Jake Elliott
P: Jordan Stout
Returners: Huntley, Velus Jones