It’s been a bit since I have written, primarily because life got really busy and partly because I didn’t have much to write. I felt like everybody (including me) was just continually writing and overreacting on the same things like Hurts’ week-to-week progress.
I always feel like I am more negative when the fanbase in general is positive (like during the second-half run that got them in the playoffs) and more positive after disastrous games. I always have had a contrarian leaning – not an intentional “hot take” approach, but one that tries to look at the broader context. For example, the end of season win streak was awesome as a fan but I did not take that as a sign the Eagles had improved.
Now that the season is officially over, I wanted to write some end of season thoughts including what I was right on, what I was REALLY wrong on, and where I am going into the offseason.
What I was right and wrong on
The Eagles would exceed their expected win total
I had the Eagles easily above the preseason 6.5 win projection at 9 wins for a few reasons:
- They had one of the easier 2021 schedules
- The OL would be healthier and better.
- Hurts would be a top half of the league QB.
- Devonta would exceed expectations.
- The DL would be good but down from 2020 and the secondary would be slightly better than 2020.
The Eagles being over their preseason line was one of the teams I felt most strongly about as 2020 had such bad injury luck that would almost certainly not repeat, horrendous QB play from Wentz that Hurts could exceed even without being great, and an improved roster in several areas (Devonta, Nelson).
The Eagles OL would be healthier and better
The OL was historically injured in 2020, something that was just not likely to repeat. This one did pan out – the Eagles were 2nd in run block win rate and 3rd in pass block win rate this season. While they did lose some starters early (Brooks and Seumalo), the difference was they largely were able to replace both with steady starters (Landon and Herbig/Driscoll) unlike 2020 when it was a week-to-week revolving door.
Hurts would be a top half of the league QB
My view on Hurts is complicated, with some things I was right on and others not. I expected a good floor due to his running value and thought his CPOE would rebound from near worst in the league to closer to what he showed in college which was very high. My biggest concern was his turnovers and decision-making which he absolutely improved on.
Hurts continues to generate big plays, 9th in the league in explosive plays behind Mahomes, Brady, Carr, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Cousins, and Stafford – good company. And like last year, he is near the top of the league in average depth of target, ranking 4th at 8.8 yards per attempt.
His accuracy got better with a 0.1 CPOE in 2021 vs. -8.3 last year. And through the second half win streak, optimism ran high. But in my last couple of posts, I showed that he has a concerning lack of progression in the 1-10 yard range with a CPOE of -5.49. He again struggled in this range in the playoff loss to Tampa. The issues many point out – timing and being slightly late and missing receivers – are what is killing him here. Extremely likable guy, but this is the highest volume part of passing offenses and he has to correct it. I’ll get into my thoughts for next year in the next post, but right now the Eagles have a middle of the league QB.
Devonta would exceed expectations and “hit the over”
He did. Devonta tied with Dallas Goedert for team lead with 26 explosive receptions and had the highest ADOT on the team (13.69 yards per attempt). And even doing so, it felt like he could have done much, much more as he was often not targeted or missed.
The DL would be slightly down and Gannon would improve the secondary
Both of these panned out although the secondary wasn’t for the reasons I thought. The DL was supposed to be the Eagles best unit and it was a bit of a disappointment. I wrote before the season that I thought the Eagles had a concerning run defense trend which continued, with the Eagles ranked 26th in the league vs. the run this season. And while Gannon’s soft coverage was infuriating, the secondary did step up this year. I thought it would be due to Gannon’s scheme but it was in spite of it – Slay having a great year, Maddox back in the slot, and Nelson being better than what we put out there last year for the third corner were really the drivers.
Reagor would take a step up
Jeez could I have been more wrong? I wrote that he had the raw traits of separation and YAC and expected a season 2 step up to be an actual WR2. It looked like he actively tried to prove me and other supporters wrong. The preseason videos of Sirianni personally showing receivers how he wanted them running routes made us all think it would help and it didn’t. He got worse in every part of the game. When you aren’t sure if they are better off with him or JJAW on the field, you have hit a dark place.
Looking towards 2022…
I’ll go into my thoughts here in more detail in the next post but some quick thoughts:
- I still think investment in the OL, corner/safety, and DL are top priorities in free agency and the draft. Early year mocks where we were all taking Aidan and Hamilton and Stingley look cute now.
- As much as we all are grabbing pitchforks to chase Reagor out of town, he isn’t going anywhere. It would be an $8M dead cap hit, he isn’t tradable, and are there 5 better WRs on the roster?
- But, the Eagles will unfortunately need to invest again in receiver because Reagor cannot be counted on to even be a WR2.
- I will never be surprised in Howie goes after a QB (particularly Russ) but fully expect Hurts to be the starter in 2022. I do think Howie will – and I would do the same – look to move one of the picks for more capital in 2023… I think the chances of the Eagles using all three 1sts is almost zero.
- The staff was overmatched and didn’t practice what they said about catering to the players strengths this year. It was such an inexperienced staff with basically every coach elevated into a role they did not hold previously and they must be better next year. If any coaches are poached away, they would be incredibly wrong to not bring in somebody with more experience.
- I really thought Kelce was retiring last year and would expect it this season (but hopefully will be wrong again). If he does retire, it has implications for the line moving forward but more importantly, we will lose what I earlier called the conscience of the Eagles. Not looking forward to the day he does finally retire.
Thanks for the read, sorry for taking a bit of time between posts. But a good year for the Birds.