Data shows that around this is the time of the season where a team’s performance starts stabilizing and they are what they are so I have been thinking a lot about some of my beliefs leading up to season.
Where Hurts Stands in His Development
I’ve been more bullish on Hurts than what consensus was after last year with the following points in past articles:
- His league-worst accuracy using Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) was going to improve as his CPOE in college was very high and usually is a stable metric college to pros.
- He has a good value floor as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA), largely because of his value rushing and ability to generate explosive plays.
- His turnovers worried me as like CPOE, they have followed him from college to his rookie season.
- Watching all of his dropbacks last year, his issues were primarily two areas: releasing the ball late which led to his accuracy issues and too many bad decisions.
Where is he now that he is at 330 career attempts, a full offseason to prepare, better weapons, and a (slightly) healthier offensive line?
Accuracy
I looked at Hurts’ CPOE and EPA by passing depth, comparing him in 2021 to 2020:
Few main points:
- In 2020, Hurts weirdly was much more efficient at longer distances and really struggled on shorter throws.
- He has improved in most areas in 2021, only dropping on 20+ yard attempts.
- I believed his accuracy would improve and it has, going from -8.3% in 2020 (second worst in the league above only Jake Luton) to a slightly above average 2.3% in 2021, right with Herbert, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and (somehow) Carson Wentz.
- And, we weren’t all imagining things with all the screen passes last week – Hurts’ attempts at or behind the LOS are up almost 7% with all other passing depth attempts down.
Now, comparing Hurts vs. the league, two things stick out:
- He still trails the league in EPA at all passing depths except at or behind the LOS.
- His efficiency numbers in the short range (1-10 yards) are a problem, especially since these are over 40% of his attempts.
And his issues here have been consistent. Of Hurts’ 10 games (his starts plus the Green Bay game he relieved Wentz in), he has only had one game – the Kansas City game in week 4 – where his 1-10 yard CPOE was positive. The one positive is his CPOE, while still bad, is better than last year’s, going from -23.57% to -5.87%.
I re-watched a lot of Hurts’ 1-10 yard pass attempts and some of this is on the receivers – all 6 of the Eagles registered drops this year came in the 1-10 yard range (think about Reagor’s drop in the opening drive last week). But, a lot of this is still on Hurts. This is where his issues on quicker release and better timing come in.
Hurts’ worst rated play by CPOE this season is this pass in the Falcons game to DeVonta on 3rd and 4 on the Atlanta 36 where he slightly threw it behind DeVonta. It led to the an attempt on 4th down which they did not convert. If Hurts is accurate with the throw, the Eagles pick up the first and would be expected to score, at least a field goal.
Hurts improving his timing and accuracy on these 1-10 yard attempts is going to be what separates him from a QB in the 12-15 range vs. a top 10 QB. If you compare Hurts to the top-10 ranked QBs this year, he compares favorably except for the 1-10 yard range throws where he is -0.264 EPA per play worse and has an 8.6% lower CPOE. Being in the top 10 is the goal, if Hurts stays middle of the league the Eagles will have a tough decision.
He has to get better here. Not to overstate it, but this is what will determine his success. Sirianni – and all offenses – run through this 1-10 yard passing range. Explosive plays are necessary, and he has no issue there, but he cannot underperform on what is 40+ percent of the passing game.
Hurts’ Mobility
I said I think Hurts has a good floor on his value because of his mobility and that continues to show. Compared to all rushers in the league, Hurts is 11th in cumulative EPA and 3rd in EPA per play. This is for all rushers, not just QBs.
But mobility is not just rushing, it is creating time in the pocket and Hurts also continues to add value here. First, here is time to throw vs. passing grade while under pressure:
Hurts grades as well under pressure as he does in a clean pocket, which is part good, part bad (to the above point on his 1-10 yard accuracy). But this chart shows the value of the QBs that can extend plays with Hurts grouped in with Josh Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, and Kyler Murray freakishly high this year.
Looking at his explosive play rate and turnovers, Hurts has improved here and again shines under pressure. Below shows big time throw rate vs. turnover worthy play rate while under pressure. Again, Hurts shows up with the best QBs in the league, making defenses pay for pressuring him.
Tampa Bay is 14th in the league in coverage grades, but looking at their coverage vs. various depths of throws, they are best at or behind the line of scrimmage (7th in league) and over 20 yards (9th in league). In both the 1-10 and 11-20 range, they are 21st. Lavonte David being out is a loss as he is their best graded LB and has the 2nd most coverage snaps on their defense.
Hurts needs to show an improved ability in the short, timing throws and has an opportunity this week.