Kelce is the not only the conscience of the Eagles, he really is the conscience of Philly sports. Thursday in his press conference he spoke about what it takes and means to play in Philly. My favorite quote was when he said playing in Philly is easy, that it would be miserable to play somewhere where nobody cares.
Getting to the Ben Simmons drama he said, “Just play better, man. The city will love you.” We are incredibly lucky to have Kelce. The 9th best draft value out of over 4,000 picks since 2005. The league’s best center over the past decade. And the player that speaks honestly and most demands accountability. Whatever we think Kelce’s impact on the Eagles has been since 2011, we are probably underestimating it.
I actually had this post half-written after the Chiefs loss and set it aside as I just didn’t know where I wanted to go. I HATE overreacting to losses (or wins). But I have been thinking a lot about what the Eagles are and what they should do in this rebuilding transition year. Who to trade, who to sit, should they have gone after Stephon Gilmore or Jaylon Smith, and more.
But something Kelce said last December has me checking my thoughts. Late in the 2020 season, Kelce was asked about tanking and had what I view as one of the best and most important responses I have ever heard from an athlete:
[A]t all times in the NFL the focus should be on winning the football game. Nothing else takes precedence. No player evaluation. No amount of curiosity from anybody within the organization. Everything is focused — in my opinion — in this league upon winning games. You see a lot of losing teams sustain losses for a number of years when they have bad cultures. They have cultures where you don’t try and win every week… this isn’t basketball. One draft pick isn’t going to make us a Super Bowl champion. It might be a big start to a Super Bowl championship, but it’s always going to be about the team. That’s the greatest thing about this sport. And culture, and the way guys fight and the way guys prepare and the way guys go about their business, is a huge reason for success in this league and in this sport. So nothing takes precedence over trying to win a football game.”
I “Trusted the Process”. I have always leaned more towards moving on from players too soon rather than too late – besides a trash farm system, this was the Phillies biggest issue post the World Series. And I think any player can be traded, it just depends on the return.
But “everything is focused on winning games”. Kelce is right. After Carson tore his ACL, most of Philly thought we were done for the season (as did I) but Foles played two of the best games in a row a QB could have for the Super Bowl. Imagine if the culture was one that was accustomed to tanking… would we have had the Super Bowl?
How I am thinking about the 2021 season
The Eagles being 2-4 feels terrible right now but not sure anybody had their preseason record after 6 games any better than that. Entering the season I was more optimistic than most on their record, having them at 9 wins, and they can absolutely still get there with the Jets, Lions, Giants twice, Red Hogs twice, and Raiders. Or they could way underperform. We will see.
But the Eagles clearly need to change how they are playing. This is what I believe most feel – it isn’t the losses, it is how the Eagles have looked in losses. The excessive off-coverage that allows teams to walk down the field, no run game or run defense, play calling, linebackers being exposed, and lack of development from Hurts and Reagor.
Over the past couple of weeks we wanted to sign Stephon Gilmore and Jaylon Smith, we saw Ertz finally get traded, others rumored to be traded, clip after All-22 clip showing the plays Hurts is missing, articles wondering if Sirianni gets fired this season, and renewed rumors of a Deshaun Watson trade.
I keep going back to Kelce cautioning against not focusing on winning. And, how do you balance winning this year with long-term success for the team? Obviously the majority of what the Eagles need is the hoped-for development of Hurts and Sirianni and I’m not going to cover the obvious that Hurts needs to have better timing and Sirianni needs to actually create offensive game plans. But there are things I would like to see. And with these, I hope I stay on the right side of the “Kelce Line”, each in the best interest of the team:
1. Play less off-coverage
Eagles defensive metrics:
2nd best in the league in explosive plays allowed
3rd in average depth of pass target allowed
32nd in 1st downs allowed
29th in drive length allowed
26th in opposing drives that result in a score
Gannon has the right philosophy focused on minimizing explosive plays and forcing runs and long drives. Just one explosive play on a drive triples the chance of a score. It’s just too extreme and failing at the second part (reducing the rate of scoring because long drives typically fail). The defense bends and then breaks. We saw Slay moved up to the line in man halfway through the KC game and that needs to continue. They have to play more aggressive.
2. Start getting Zech McPhearson and Tay Gowan on the field
Rookie CB playing stats:
27 of 37 rookie CBs have played this season
Of 10 that have not played, 2 have been on IR and 7 are R6-7 picks
21 of 22 CBs drafted in rounds 1-4 have played (Zech being the only one that hasn’t)
25 rookie CBs have played at least 30 snaps
It is very unlikely that both Slay and Nelson are back next year and Avonte is a free agent after this year. Gannon insists on staying in nickel with these linebackers who are not succeeding – they are the 2nd highest group of LBs in the league in pass targets against and receptions allowed and near the bottom of the league in average depth of tackle. Data shows dime outperforms nickel in almost every passing stat – the Eagles would improve by getting an extra corner on the field. And if there is a fear of further weakening the run defense, both Zech (70.0) and Tay (77.7) graded really well in college against the run. They need to play more.
3. Get Davion and Shaun Bradley on the field
Grades for Eagles top 4 LBs by snap count:
Wilson 52.1 pass / 26.4 run defense
Singleton 34.6 / 57.2
Edwards 42.9 / 55.0
Avery 56.7 / 58.2
This finally happened against Tampa with Davion’s snap count up to 37 but Bradley is still not playing. Like corner, Davion and Bradley need to develop. Davion is the only LB on the roster with the needed athletic profile and while a small sample size, Davion and Bradley are the two highest graded LBs this year. Unlike the other LBs, both look to be the only ones that are at least competent in both run and pass defense. Not saying start them, but there is no reason not to get them more playing time – staying on the right side of the “Kelce Line”, there aren’t world-beaters playing ahead of either of them.
4. More short/intermediate passing
Eagles passing stats by depth:
27% behind LOS vs. 22% for league
43% 1-10 yards vs. 48% for league
We knew Sirianni was going to focus on getting the ball in the hands of playmakers on short passes, and despite the criticism on the screens, they have actually worked for the Eagles outside of the last game (+0.157 EPA/play vs. the league). But the majority of passing offense is the 1-10 yard range and this is where Hurts is worst. Not sure how much is play-calling vs. Hurts’ decisions, but the Eagles need to both increase the volume of 1-10 yard passes and get better at this range. This will stress Hurts’ timing.
5. And lastly, trades…
Dead cap hits for select players:
Cox – $40M
Slay – $15M
Brooks – $15M
Dillard – $1.5M
Sanders – $0.48M
Nelson and Barnett – none
A lot of talk recently on who to trade now that Ertz was finally traded. Cox is absolutely not movable due to his contract and there isn’t a good enough replacement for him. Trading Slay would be crazy as he is their best CB. Brooks and Dillard could but doubt either brings a decent return. I would be fine with Nelson and/or Barnett as both are gone after this season and both are low priced enough that there would be a market (few teams can fit large salaries). Sanders if the return is good as I would not give a second contract to a RB, they aren’t using him, and at least there is a replacement in Gainwell. But again, I don’t see any of these as a decent return and anything that looks like a fire-sale for day 3 picks sends a bad message.
The Eagles have an uphill battle this year as Dallas also gets an easier schedule the rest of the year and there is little chance the NFC East pulls a wildcard team. And this year is about developing Hurts and the young players and defining what the Eagles should do with their 2022 draft capital. Hopefully the above moves support both developing the team and having the best team on the field.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m assuming this is Kelce’s last year. It is great that Landon is starting as the Eagles need him to hit his potential to be an on-the-field replacement. But not sure who will ever be the off-the-field replacement that Kelce is.
Great piece.