Overall stats:
Looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) which measures every play with the value of the play above or below what is expected given down, distance, and field position. The Eagles were :
- 3rd in the league in rushing EPA and one of only 12 teams with a positive rushing EPA (a lot of the analytics community hates runs because they typically have a negative EPA.
- 8th in the league in passing EPA
- And just because I love punters, Aaron Siposs had a couple beautiful punts and ended 2nd in the league in punting EPA
- The Falcons had the second lowest total EPA (-21.6!), showing the job the Eagles defense did
Hurts’ accuracy:
77.1 completion %, 90.0 adjusted completion %, and 6th in the league in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Hurts’ bottom-of-the-league completion percentage and CPOE were the primary points used to criticize him all offseason. I said his accuracy is not an issue because he was near-elite in college CPOE which typically translates to the NFL. CPOE is the metric to look at as it accounts for difficulty of the throw.
Hurts vs. the blitz:
105.5 passer rating, 83.3 completion percentage, 2 TDs, 8 of his 15 1st downs
Before the game I posted on Twitter Hurts’ success last year against the blitz given that we expected Atlanta to blitz more and he continued the success.
Receivers:
Of 234 receivers this week, here is how they ranked in EPA:
- DeVonta 32nd
- Goedert 34th
- Reagor 46th
- Ertz 77th
- Quez 79th
Three receivers in the league had 4 explosive receptions (> 16 yards) and eleven had 3 explosive receptions. DeVonta was one of the WRs that had 3.
Eagles defense: 41% pressure rate, 2nd rated pass rush (82.6)
The Eagles success on defense was obvious just watching the game. Jalen Mayfield had a 1.4 (that’s not a typo) pass blocking grade, allowing 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 4 pressures – Atlanta will be bringing in a free agent guard this week. Matt Hennessy (20.0) and Kaleb McGary (44.6) weren’t much better. The Eagles also generated one of my favorite pictures ever, “Deceased Matt”.
Gannon and the secondary: Eagles corners ranked 14, 15, and 18 in the league in coverage grades
Avonte (72.3), Slay (71.9), and Steven Nelson (68.6) all graded out really well. While Atlanta isn’t a good team, Ryan is a good QB against pressure, Calvin Ridley is a top WR in the league, and Pitts is a matchup issue. This is a really good showing and speaks to both the CBs and Gannon’s defense which just seemed less stressful watching the game.
The Eagles OL: 5th rated pass blocking and 11th rated run blocking
All five starters played all snaps. Seems like forever that has happened. While there were several penalties that were a bit sloppy, our healthy OL made the impact expected. I posted some data on the Eagles average offensive EPA based on how many starters played which showed a big impact on the overall offense:
The Eagles offense generated 8.28 total EPA, or 0.095 per play. Both are above the historical averages, which with better QB play and better weapons is to be expected. Everybody gets the importance of a health OL but I still don’t think many really realize the scope of the impact – a good OL makes a huge difference. I have repeated this many times, but QBs have over a 100 point DVOA swing being kept clean vs. under pressure.