I previously wrote an article on the relationship of aggregate team player value and win totals and using team value to forecast win totals. It is a more analytical post but if you are interested in the model, see this post: https://phillycovercorner.com/2021/08/projecting-win-totals-using-team-approximate-value-av-metrics/
Here I will give my win projection forecasts for the NFC teams in the 2021 season using this model.
NFC East
| Team | Exp Team Value | Exp 2021 Wins | vs. Over/Under |
| Washington | 215 | 9.6 | Over (8.5) |
| Philadelphia | 210 | 8.9 | Over (6.5) |
| Dallas | 195 | 7.4 | Under (9.0) |
| New York | 184 | 6.1 | Under (7.0) |
Washington
The still-unnamed WFT (please let it be Redhogs) forecast out to repeat as NFC East champs by just over a half game, even with one of the harder schedules in the league. While many are dismissing Washington due to Fitzpatrick, their team value is lifted with the top value defense in the league. And Fitzpatrick was 7th in the league last year in composite EPA+CPOE (min 200 attempts), better than any other NFC East starting QB. Add in their offensive weapons and they should be able to do what few do and repeat as NFC East champs.
Philadelphia
Philly is the team with the greatest difference vs. national expectations in the NFC East. They were the only NFC East team in 2020 with material “bad luck”, underperforming their expected wins by 6%. 2021 forecasts do not assume extreme positive play – Hurts is modeled as an average QB, the OL gets an uptick due to fewer lost games due to injury, the secondary models the same as 2020, and improvements in DL and WR. The Eagles project to be “ok” on both sides, 14th in the league in both offense and defense, but that is enough to give a big improvement vs. 2020. While this may reek of a “homer” article, it is what the aggregate team value shows (and last year, this modeled the Eagles at 4.7 wins).
Dallas
This will be another widely criticized forecast as many have the Cowboys predicted to win the NFC East. They get Dak back who is a top 7ish QB in the league and he models out as one of the best QBs with over 16 projected AV, but there is risk of his underperformance coming back from a bad injury. Their WRs are elite but Zeke is already regressing, dropping below 30% explosive run rate in 2020 and over 1,200 career carries where RBs dramatically regress. Like Philly, Dallas gets a lift from a healthy offensive line, but their defense still projects as an issue (22nd in the league).
New York
Not much surprise here as NY was not good last year, were net losers in the offseason with more free agency losses than adds, and a team seemingly set up trying to win running the ball (analytics spoiler, this is not how you win in the NFL). Kenny Golladay is a nice add and they drafted Kadarius Toney, but both have been injured. They project to have the 20th offense and 29th defense in the league and while I don’t have a “dysfunction” modifier in this model, the Giants legitimately deserve one with weekly retirements and all-out brawl during camp. I actually think my 6.1 win prediction is high.
NFC North
| Team | Exp Team Value | Exp 2021 Wins | vs. Over/Under |
| Green Bay | 215 | 12.5 | Over (10.0) |
| Minnesota | 225 | 10.7 | Over (9.0) |
| Chicago | 185 | 6.2 | Under (7.5) |
| Detroit | 155 | 2.9 | Under (4.5) |
Green Bay
No surprise here as Green Bay projects to win the NFC North, solid on both sides with the projected 3rd best offense and 12th rated defense in terms of player value. Performance-wise, Green Bay’s defense has not lived up to the sum of its parts, finishing 2020 17th in the league in DVOA. But they have better players than the overall performance has shown which is why they forecast better in 2021 – this will be up to Joe Barry to get the most out of this defense (and it is reasonable to expect improvement here). They feature several of the highest rated players in the model with Rodgers, Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, Aaron Jones, and David Bakhtiari with one of the better overall offensive lines in the league.
Minnesota
The Vikings 10.7 forecasted wins is one of a few teams that surprised me, mostly because of Kirk Cousins but the Vikings have had an effective offense and Cousins has consistently provided value, ending as the 9th highest rated QB in 2020 in composite EPA+CPOE. There was a lot of turnover on the defensive side that is probably a net positive vs. last year, especially in the secondary. They forecast to have the 9th best offense (even with some regression of Justin Jefferson modeled in) and the 17th highest value defense.
Chicago
Why Andy Dalton..? I am one of many that thinks several teams like Denver, Carolina, and Atlanta will regret not drafting Justin Fields and I don’t understand the Bears starting Dalton. Yes, the Bears OL is scary bad and maybe they don’t want to rush Fields with the tough start to the schedule, but I would trust the better talent. Their OL is bad and they won’t be able to count on Teven Jenkins (I didn’t like this pick as Samuel Cosmi was one of “my guys” in the draft and would have given the Bears an instant starting tackle over Jenkins who I am not sure isn’t a guard). A tougher than average schedule projects the Bears at 6.2 wins with the 15th ranked defense and 26th ranked offense. How quickly they switch to Fields and how Fields performs is obviously the big swing point that can change this.
Detroit
I have been working with this win projection model for months and waited to final rosters to finalize it. Early on, Detroit was modeling out between 4 and 5 wins which is awful but that always felt high still. With the final model, Detroit does come in really low at 2.9 wins. They have the 3rd toughest schedule, amazingly actually outperformed their 2020 value by 5% (meaning further regression is likely), have a major downgrade at QB with Goff who statistically was bad in one of the most favorable situations in LA, and no offensive weapons. Coaching does not factor into my model but on the positive side, not having Matt Patricia will help them. They are projected to have the worst offense in the league and the 24th ranked defense.
NFC South
| Team | Exp Team Value | Exp 2021 Wins | vs. Over/Under |
| Tampa Bay | 265 | 15.0 | Over (12.0) |
| Carolina | 202 | 8.1 | Over (7.5) |
| Atlanta | 196 | 7.5 | Push (7.5) |
| New Orleans | 197 | 7.5 | Under (9.0) |
Tampa Bay
While there are always surprises in the NFL, I’m pretty confident the NFC South is going to be the least interesting division this year. Tampa Bay returns their entire Super Bowl team, has good depth, have a couple of draft picks that have shined (Joe Tryon and KJ Britt) that will further add to depth, and the Buccaneers have the 6th easiest schedule this year. It seems crazy modeling a 15-2 season but when you look at their schedule, you have the Rams and Bills which are the only two on-paper challenges. The Falcons could sneak a win and there’s probably a loss due to sitting starters late in the season. Nothing about their 2020 was a fluke except some injury luck and they actually underperformed their expected 2020 win total by 6% with two of their 2020 losses coming to New Orleans which won’t happen this year.
Carolina
This was another team I kept questioning the data as most view them as a likely “under” in 2021 with little faith in Darnold. But one thing to note is Carolina experienced one of the highest levels of analytical “bad luck” in 2020, underperforming their expected win total by 11% (or almost two wins), going 3-6 in one-score games. Darnold projects to be pretty bad with the 21st ranked offense, but they have good WRs with preseason standout Terrace Marshall not even being one of the top three and they get Christian McCaffrey back. There are a lot of new players on defense which have the potential to lift their defense into the top half of the league, making 8-9 very attainable.
Atlanta
Of all the predictions, this is the one I probably feel least good about and think the Falcons can outperform. Atlanta had the most 2020 “bad luck”, going 1-7 in one-score games which you expect to positively adjust. I have them with an average schedule (16th hardest) in 2021 versus one of the hardest schedules in 2020. The South is worse this year primarily because of New Orleans, who the Falcons lost to twice last year. But they are still predicted to have near bottom-half units in 2021 with the 15th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense. They lost Julio but Calvin Ridley excelled when Julio was out. While most TEs don’t perform their first year, Pitts will be an exception and a player I worry about covering. But the way to look at it is he needs to replace Julio which is a lot to ask. Their OL is a big question area and the run game is not good. But I could still see Atlanta outperforming this 7.5 prediction primarily due to less bad luck than 2020 and an easier division.
New Orleans
While I don’t feel good about the Atlanta prediction, New Orleans is one I feel really good about and actually think they do worse than modeled. They had “good luck” in 2020 outperforming their expected win total by 8%, they were near the top of the league in injury luck in 2020, they lost more in free agency than they gained with 7 starters including a Hall of Fame QB leaving while only really adding Brian Poole in the secondary. Oh, and they have a top-five hardest 2021 schedule. This 7.5 win projection seems generous but I’ll go with the data.
NFC West
| Team | Exp Team Value | Exp 2021 Wins | vs. Over/Under |
| Los Angeles | 229 | 11.7 | Over (10.5) |
| San Francisco | 230 | 11.1 | Over (10.5) |
| Seattle | 214 | 9.4 | Under (10.0) |
| Arizona | 173 | 4.9 | Under (8.5) |
Los Angeles
In what most believe will be the toughest division in football, I have the 49ers and Rams even with a slight edge to the Rams. With a major upgrade at QB, the Rams offense should improve in 2021 from a middle of the league ranking in 2020. They lost Cam Akers but both Darrell Henderson and newly acquired Sony Michel will fill in fine as both are top 25th percentile in explosive rush rate (both higher than Akers). Their defense is projected to be 2nd in the league and anytime your strengths are pass rush (Aaron Donald) and coverage (Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams), you are positioned right for today’s league.
San Francisco
San Francisco had some of the worst luck in 2020, underperforming their expected win total by almost 11% (or two wins) and near the league bottom in turnover margin (I don’t see as much randomness in turnover margin as many who view it as an area of luck due for regression). In 2021, SF has the 3rd easiest schedule and get Nick Boas back from injury. So there is a lot to look at for positive regression vs. 2020. Like several teams, the QB situation can swing this but I view Garoppolo better than many do – in 2020, he was 13th in the league in composite EPA+CPOE (min 150 attempts), right with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Philip Rivers, and Dak Prescott. Like the Rams, they will feature a better defense, projected to be 5th best in the league in 2021.
Seattle
Seattle is a clear underperformance candidate as they were the 3rd “luckiest” team last year, outperforming their expected win total by 13%, or over 2 games, and going 7-3 in one-score games. Their offense will be good, projected to be 7th in the league with Russell Wilson, DK, and a better than recognized OL. They also have an easier schedule outside of the NFC West, playing the NFC North, New Orleans, Houston, and Jacksonville but will not repeat going 3-1 against the Rams and 49ers this year. Their defense is projected to drop from 16th to 25th in the league with downgrades in the secondary. This isn’t one of my favorite predictions just because of Russell – he has never won fewer than 10 games and it is hard to go against a top QB and predict a sub-10 win season (in a 17 game season). But they clearly will be in a tougher division with defensive downgrades.
Arizona
Arizona is the team I have the biggest difference from their over/under win total, forecasting a pretty bad team at 4.9 wins. Early in the offseason, they were a trendy pick to outperform but now most view them as a boom or bust team. I love Kyler Murray and think any QB with true value on the ground gives teams a distinct advantage, but there is a lot going against Arizona and their overall talent level is overrated. They have the 7th hardest schedule in 2021, a middle of the league offense (projected to be 16th), and a defense that was the strength of their 2020 season that has the potential to be really bad in 2021 (projected to be 27th). Their cornerback situation is probably the worst in the league and that was before Malcolm Butler retired this past week. Unless they add a corner, they will start Byron Murphy (an unimpressive 63.3 grade in coverage last year), Robert Alford (an even worse 48.2 coverage grade last year and only 334 coverage naps over 8 seasons), and 4th round rookie Marco Wilson. They have to add somebody, maybe bringing back Dre Kirikpatrick, but are there CB options out there that fill the holes they have? Along with New Orleans, Arizona is the team I feel most comfortable with the big drop in projected wins.
NFC Summary
Below summarizes the NFC with each team’s modeled 2021 win projection, the current over/under win total betting line, difference from O/U line, 2020 actual win total, and difference from 2020 wins.
A few call outs:
- The Eagles, Packers, Buccaneers, Vikings, and Rams are the teams modeled to most beat their current over/under win totals (more than a one game positive difference).
- The Cardinals, Cowboys, Lions, Bears, and Saints are the teams most expected to underperform their over/under win totals.
- The biggest year-over-year win total improvements are the 49ers (+5.0), Eagles (+4.9), Buccaneers (+4.0), Vikings (+3.8), and Falcons (+3.5).
- The biggest year-over-year win decreases are the Saints (-4.5), Cardinals (-3.1), Seahawks (-2.6), and Lions (-2.1).
This model has bigger win total movements (plus and minus 4 or 5 games) than most 2021 forecasts. I looked at the typical year-over-year win total changes, shown below:
On average, each year about half of the league (16.4 teams) will be +/- 2 wins from their prior year. But we also will have 6 teams that have a win total +/-6 or more games different than their prior year win total.
While this model has subjectivity in it as described in the link at the top, I avoided adjusting any team that didn’t come out how I expected as the league surprises us every year. The few teams that I feel best on include the Eagles (a full article explaining why is here), Saints, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Lions. The predictions I feel least confident in are the Falcons, Cowboys, Bears, and Seahawks.