Everybody has seen the notes from the first few days of camp and I’m not writing the same post. What I am doing here is grabbing points that I think are most relevant for the season and future of the Eagles. If you have read my prior posts, I have dug into their draft philosophy and which positions they need to invest in in the future, what metrics or performance are most important and ones we need to pay attention to for the success of the team, and what we should likely expect from key players or units. My perspective on camp here will tie back to all of these.
Is Jalen Hurts our answer at QB?
Quicker decisions and reducing turnovers
The #1 question is “is Hurts our go-forward QB?” and to answer that, it is “can he improve accuracy and reads?” I previously wrote on Hurts’ often talked about near-bottom-of-the-league completion percentage and completion percentage over expectations (CPOE). I do not think his accuracy is going to be a problem. First, last season was a small sample size and other good QBs – Luck, Lamar, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen although he is a weirder example as he never showed accuracy in college and improved dramatically in the pros which really doesn’t happen – had similar poor stats if you only looked at their first four starts. Hurts had near elite college CPOE which will follow him to the pros.
What Hurts absolutely needs to improve on are two things:
- Making decisions and releasing the ball quicker
- And reducing turnovers (which unfortunately, like his accuracy, also was a defining college trait)
Quicker decisions: The story this week was Hurts had a “not good” day 1, a better day 2, and a very good day 3 in camp, and was inconsistent on day 4. For whatever camp stats are worth, his top line numbers are good – prior to day 4, Hurts had a 30/44, 6 TD, 1 INT line (the TD line is misleading as there have been a lot of redzone drills).
We would all take stats like that during the season, but late decisions and throws don’t necessarily show up as incompletions, they can be completions where the receiver isn’t in a position for a big gain due to the late delivery. And camp notes point to Hurts still not getting rid of the ball quickly enough.
From Mike Kaye’s (@mike_e_kaye) camp notes here at NJ.com:
Hurts has gotten better in each of the three practices, which is a positive sign given his history of career growth. There’s really no panic in him, which is both a blessing and a curse. He’s holding onto the ball a bit longer than you’d like, and that’s been an issue through all three days of work.
Mike Kaye – NJ.com
And from Saturday, Brandon Lee Gowton made the same comment in his notes: “Still would like to see him get the ball out quicker at times and avoid inviting pressure.”
I mentioned Thomas Peterson’s break down of every Jalen Hurts 2020 throw previously – if you have not watched it and have an hour, go do so as it provides so much context on the top-level stats that people are making declarations on. A lot of Hurts’ stats issues were due to pressure but there were many times last year where Hurts made a late decision or held the ball just a bit too long – here are two examples from the Saints game, but there were too many of these last year in his four games:
I am optimistic on Hurts, but this is something he needs to improve on. The offense should help here as we are already seeing Sirianni’s quick hitting, timing routes show up in camp.
Limiting turnovers: Camp is not going to be a good test of turnovers as the QB can’t be hit, his scrambling will be more limited and less realistic, and even interceptions are often because they are working concepts. But turnovers are the biggest thing I see that can derail his career – he was bottom third of the league in interception rate (2%) and off the charts on fumble rate (almost 5% of dropbacks). Saturday he fumbled a snap and had an interception to TJ on a poor throw. The one thing that is good is the focus the coaching staff is drilling ball security for the offense and ball attacking for the defense which should elevate everybody.
Do we finally have an explosive WR unit?
DeVonta is the real deal, Reagor needs to start popping up in camp notes
For the Eagles to finally have the passing attack we need, DeVonta needs to be what we expect him to be and Reagor needs to advance in year two. After WR1 and WR2, I fully expect among Ward, Quez, Fulgham, and Hightower we will have solid receivers that give the Eagles options with deep speed and YAC ability. A few points from the first few days of camp:
DeVonta:
- DeVonta had some uncharacteristic drops in the first couple of days, but also showed his potential with a 60+ yard completion, beating CB2 Steve Nelson and S K’Von Wallace in double team with release at the line.
- DeVonta leads the Eagles with 5 TDs in the first three days (again, camp stats but it says something as he is consistently getting open in redzone drills).
- And most importantly, DeVonta has such high expectations on himself and you see everyday that he is serious on perfecting his craft (like asking Slay what he needs to change on routes, being first in all drills).
Reagor:
- We have not see much from Reagor as he was limited in practice but he has the raw traits – I mentioned before his elite separation stats in his rookie season (95th percentile). Day 4 he finally ran some team drills and had a notable route against Slay where he generated good separation. I keep saying it, but Reagor will be good – with his traits, it would be more unlikely that he isn’t good.
Ward / Fulgham / Quez / Hightower / JJAW:
- Hightower has the skills needed but is still showing too much up and down. Last year he clearly had an ability to get open deep (including against Steve Nelson in the PIT game) but had some drops. While flashing early in camp some this year, he has also continued to show trouble tracking balls which earned him a pull-aside from Sirianni on Saturday.
- There isn’t much else to focus on yet as Ward, Fulgham, and Quez have been limited. Fulgham also possesses high separation scores (76th percentile) and Quez showed great agility with and without the ball last year when he finally got an opportunity. Quez did have one of the catches of the day on Saturday as he is starting to work in drills.
- I didn’t mention JJAW, he had a couple of nice moments but I don’t see how he makes the team unless Hightower really falters. And he really shouldn’t. I value traits (those that matter) more than many, but JJAW just doesn’t have them – he cannot separate or generate YAC… from the draft forward, he has been billed as a jump ball guy which is just not a reason to keep a receiver.
How do we think about future draft needs?
In the “this is way too early” section, how the young players elevate will impact future needs. Despite it being early, there are clear future needs for the Eagles to use their three two first round picks on, which are, in rough order:
- Cornerback
- Offensive line
- Linebacker
- Defensive line
Cornerback: Nothing is going to change the future need at cornerback. Slay’s cap hit is $22M next year with “only” a $7.5M dead cap hit if he is moved after June 1. They could keep him next year but that is a big number and you cannot keep extending him due to his age. Nelson is on a one-year and if he performs, he will get paid next year. I would not be surprised if one is still with the team next year but given corners take time to develop, the Eagles have to invest next year. The two things to watch for the future are:
- Does Gannon really elevate the secondary (outside of Slay and Nelson)? I have little faith in the Eagles secondary beyond Slay and Nelson and will be glad to be surprised here.
- What does McPhearson become? Given Nelson’s arrival, Zech’s play time will likely be limited. Very early in camp, but Zech has been sticky in coverage and gotten his hands on the ball a couple of times. While not talked about much in the draft and dismissed a bit because of playing in the Big 12, he does have some underappreciated stats (4th highest graded CB in single coverage and 3rd highest against Power 5 WRs) as David wrote here.
The Eagles absolutely will need to draft one CB next year and most likely two unless Zech elevates to a CB2 able to play outside. Gannon will put the secondary in better positions to succeed and has shown success before, but he also has always had top draft picks anchoring the secondary.
Offensive line: I also previously wrote on why the offensive line will be better this year but also stressing the need to invest here in the future with an eye on the post Kelce / Brooks / Lane era. I probably seem overly negative on guys like Seumalo as I view him as good but question if is he really part of an elite line if that is what we are seeking? No matter what, I can’t see the Eagles not using a higher pick (rounds 1-3) on offensive line again next year, but here are some things to watch:
- Is Dillard good? I saw people online almost glad to see Dillard struggle as they want Mailata to win the job which is insane. Mailata will win the job but it is in our best interest for Dillard to be good as it is depth or a trade option or allows Mailata to eventually move to RT. It’s still early but it looks like Dillard’s weaknesses against power are still showing up. What is additionally concerning is he was beat this week on outside and inside moves as well.
- Is Herbig a guard of the future? I may also be too tempered in expectations here but it is just so rare for an UDFA to really be great. I love the work he put in, his mental approach, and him dropping weight so maybe I will be surprised. Same with Opeta.
Like corner, I don’t see how the Eagles don’t invest here in the future as there are long-term needs at both tackle and guard.
Linebacker: I wrote previously criticizing Howie’s de-prioritization of linebacker and the importance of the position in today’s league due to mismatches. I do agree on limiting investment as you really only need one really good LB and often a safety serves as this role (as Jenkins did for us). We have a lot of young bodies at LB and we need to specifically watch Davion, JaCoby, and K’Von (safety capable of the hybrid role):
- Explosiveness and agility are the two critical traits that are demanded of today’s top LBs and of the Eagles LBs, Davion and JaCoby are the ones with these traits. It is great to see Davion getting first team reps and clearly a player we need to elevate. Of all things to watch this year at LB, Davion is it.
- JaCoby was a puzzle pre-draft, viewed as a round 1 talent years ago but knocked for questions on his role in the NFL and a down senior season (by the entire LSU defense). It’s hard to expect much from pick 224 in the draft but he does have the athletic traits. Things to watch with JaCoby when he makes the field are if his athletic traits translate to the field, if he can disrupt routes, and can he shed blocks in the run game.
- Can K’von Wallace serve as a hybrid defender? He also has elite testing in explosiveness and agility. His usage at Clemson and pre-draft profile all point towards this type of role with strengths in blitzing and against the run, ability to play slot, but concerns in deeper coverage. He is light for this type of role but not different than a Malcolm. I’m excited to see K’Von play this year and he also points to this defense as a better fit for his skills than last year.
Defensive line: This one will seem odd to most to be on the list as DL is viewed as probably the top one or two strengths of the team. But Fletch is getting older and it is doubtful the Eagles pay both Sweat and Barnett after this season. It is still a good unit but I worry about depth and the future here.
- How good is Milton Williams? I am high on him for his athletic traits and also because DL was underdrafted this year, Williams being only the 4th DT drafted and historically, top five DTs drafted are average to above average players.
- Not much news on Marlon Tuipulotu but he should rotate in this year and he could be an underappreciated value for the Eagles. He reminds me so much of Bennie Logan but with slightly more pass rush or pocket disruption upside.
- And lastly Tarron Jackson who has had some flashes early. Again, it is tough to expect a starter with the 191st pick with EDGE being one of the worst positions historically to get value late in the draft.
If Milton and Marlon both turn out, this lessens the future need for the Eagles but the need to start looking at a post Cox / Graham era.
What is this year’s most interesting / fun story?
Clearly Tyree Jackson. Making the roster is an uphill battle but jeez, that size and skillset… I’ll just leave his Relative Athletic Score profile as a tight end here.
He will be fun to watch.