There is absolutely nothing to dislike about the Eagles signing free agent corner Steven Nelson because the corner two spot was going to be a battle between Avonte (who has proven over and over again he isn’t an outside corner), Zech McPhearson (which is a lot to ask of a rookie 4th rounder), and Michael Jacquet. But what should we expect with Nelson?
While I am from Philly, I lived in Pittsburgh for twenty years and follow the Steelers second to the Eagles. Steeler fans had mixed feelings on Nelson – while he shined in 2019, he started off 2020 worse and had some notable down games:
- In two of the first three games of the 2020 season, Nelson allowed 150+ passer ratings against the Giants and Houston, giving up 2 touchdowns
- Against Buffalo, Nelson had a 37.6 coverage grade giving up 82 yards and a touchdown, covering Stefon Diggs often
- He had a 54.2 coverage grade against the Colts but when you look at his coverage, most of the yards he gave up were in coverage against RB Nyheim Hines (but did give up one a 25 yarder to TY Hilton)
But as recently as last week, media in Pittsburgh were still thinking (hoping) he could return to the Steelers and viewed him remaining unsigned as a great sign. The Steelers cut Nelson for cap reasons only, despite some of the early season concerns.
What are we getting?
In a colossal understatement, we are getting a giant upgrade over our CB2 options. But Nelson still compares well to other top corners.
This article over on BehindTheSteelCurtain.com does a great job giving context on Nelson’s 2020 season and I encourage you to take a look at it. The key points are that the Steelers used Nelson much more to cover shorter routes in 2020 and that despite his stats looking worse, the Steelers overall defense on his side of the field got better. But there are great film clips in the article that provide a lot more detail.
Now from an analytics perspective, Nelson still compares favorably in the league. Below shows the percentile ranks of Nelson and Avonte on Expected Points Saved (a view on how many Expected Points Added they gave up when defending passes) and Defensive Impacts (passes defended, interceptions, forced fumbles, tackled for loss, and QB hits). Nelson not only is an upgrade, but is still top third of the league in EPA saved.
Next, the chart below shows Nelson with Darius Slay, Avonte, Crevon LeBlanc (I included him even though he just signed with Miami as he was an option for the Eagles), as well as many of the top corners in the league. The x axis shows Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per target, with lower numbers (to the right) being better. The y axis shows Completion Percentage Over Expected, a better measure than pure completion percentage allowed as it factors in what the completion percentage was expected to be (screens have higher expected completions than downfield passes). Like EPA, a lower CPOE is better (higher on the chart is better). Higher and to the right on the chart is better. Nelson is right in the middle and above any of the Eagles corners.
Next, the below shows Win Percentage Added (WPA) per target on the y axis with the same EPA per target on the x axis. WPA measures how much the offense’s win percentage went up after a play where the corner was defending. Again, higher and to the right on the chart is better.
The above stats may be a bit unfair to Darius Slay as he always covered the top receiver where Nelson did not have that duty – he was clearly the CB2 on the Steelers behind Joe Haden. Nelson is not up with the elite corners in the league, but gives the Eagles their second CB they absolutely needed.
The other day I posted my prediction for the 2021 Eagles season and am more bullish on their record than most. The secondary was obviously one of the risk areas, with my concern being the absence of a CB2 could make the defense exploitable to the point that scoring didn’t matter. Nelson reduces this risk greatly and should make Eagles fans feel great about the Eagles upside this year. Here are my overall thoughts on Nelson and the Eagles secondary overall:
- The concerns in Pittsburgh (by some, not all) that Nelson was in decline are not accurate. He should not, however, be expected to be a shutdown corner and if there is valid criticism from last year, it is when he went up against receivers like Stefon Diggs or Amari Cooper.
- This is obviously a one year deal and does not solve anything long-term for the Eagles. Slay is aging and carries a $22 million cap hit next year. Maybe Nelson is extended. Maybe McPhearson works out but expecting a 4th rounder to be a CB1 is highly unlikely. The Eagles will still need to invest one or two top picks on corners in the 2022 draft.