Which teams do (or do not) accumulate draft capital?





Obviously, bad teams will have more draft capital and winners will have less, but teams don't stand still and teams have different approaches on valuing draft capital. Here will provide some visualization to which teams add the most draft capital, either through player trades, managing the compensatory pick game, or trade downs as well as which teams lose the most draft capital through trades.

Draft capital vs. expected draft capital

  • The original draft capital teams had just based on their record and draft slotting before any trades (x-axis)
  • How much draft capital teams actually had based on their draft slotting and after all trades, comp picks (y-axis)
  • The circle size is a representation of player value attained from the draft (bigger circle is a better draft with more value)

Draft capital vs. record

  • Teams' average win percentage over the selected period - while not a direct correlation to draft capital due to tiebreakers and slotting, better teams will still have less draft capital - teams picking 1st overall have 47% more total draft capital than Super Bowl winners(x-axis)
  • How much draft capital teams actually had based on their draft slotting and after all trades, comp picks (y-axis)
  • The circle size is a representation of player value attained from the draft (bigger circle is a better draft with more value)

Most teams fluctuate between gaining or losing draft capital, but there are some themes:

Trading for a star: Surprisingly some of the biggest hits to draft capital come from not QB trade ups, but trading for stars

Acquiring a QB: The obvious one, when teams make a move up in the draft or for a starting veteran QB, the price is usually steep

Methodically acquiring capital: Few teams appear to methodically acquire draft capital year after year but there are a couple that have done so recently



Quantifying teams gains and losses

I'm using the surplus value draft value chart here which gives the frst overall pick a value of 100 and decreases from there (pick 33 is 66 points of draft capital, pick 64 is 42, pick 100 is 28, and so on until pick 255 bottoms at 7 points. But to give context to how much teams have added or lost through trades vs. their expected draft capital, the below shows the average annual draft capital gain or loss and the equivalent pick of that value.

For example, in 2023 Arizona moved up to 3 for Will Anderson, sending picks 12, 33, and a future 1st and 3rd to Houston. Across the 2023-24 period, Arizona gained 85 points of draft capital value, adding the equivalent value of pick 14 in the draft. Note, this doesn't mean they actually got pick 14, just that they got the equivalent value of pick 14 across the two picks they received in return.