So many think it never makes sense to draft a punter but that is wrong. If you need a punter, taking one on day 3 is statistically more valuable than other positions. Below shows the actual vs. expected value of each position by draft round. Beginning in round 5, punters and kickers (listed as ST below) actually give the highest value vs. expected of any positon. The ony position that is close is OL which always provides good value on day 3 and if you don't need a punter, take OL.
We all love the late round gems - in Philly, many point to Jason Kelce taken at pick 191 in the 6th round as why "we never need to draft centers high" which is nonsense.
Yes, there are late round finds every year but the chance of getting one is really, really low.
Below shows the chance of drafting a player in each of the player classes (which tie to value percentiles). A few takeaways:
| Position | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite (85th % and above) | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Above Average (60-80th %) | 30.6% | 19.0% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| League Average (40-60th %) | 19.7% | 21.8% | 15.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Poor (below 40th %) | 30.6% | 49.8% | 64.4% | 65.3% | 62.1% | 56.1% | 48.1% |
| Never plays (0th %) | 0.3% | 3.1% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 24.8% | 35.3% | 45.9% |