A look at how well NFL teams have drafted in 2023-24 considering total value from the draft, value vs. their draft capital, and value vs. what is expected at draft slots.
Teams with higher draft value are at the top, teams with lower value are at the bottom. Teams with more draft capital are to the right while teams with less draft capital are to the left.
Gaining more value from the draft is important, but teams also need to draft well with the resources they have - teams with more and higher picks have higher EXPECTED draft value. Below shows the value teams have gained from the draft vs. the total expected value of their picks using historical draft returns. Note that more teams will show negative expected value just because players early in their careers typically underperform due to less playing time.
Most people don't realize how quickly expected draft value drops off - hit rates fall dramatically in the middle or late 3rd round, with the chance of getting a starting level player on day 3 of the draft really low and almost zero near the end of the draft. It's interesting to look at how teams have fared not only at their high, premium picks but later in the draft.
