Draft performance and winning

The draft is only a piece of roster building as free agency and trades are just as important. But with the salary cap and teams always needing to make tough decisions, it makes sense that teams that consistently draft better will be better teams. But by how much? And are there some teams that are just better at drafting?

Even a single good or bad draft can impact win percentage by near 10%

The table below shows how either a top or bottom percentile draft, or consecutive drafts, impacts a team's win percentage over the following 3-year period.

A single good, 75th percentile, draft will raise a team's winning percentage by over a game a year (almost 8%). But when a team has a great draft (90th percentile) and can string multiple good drafts together, win percentage is impacted by 2-3 games a year over a 3-year period. Conversely, bad drafts have a similar but negative impact on a team's win percentage.

These are averages and a team's winning is impacted by a lot more than just a good draft or who they draft, particularly QB. If you look at the history of teams like Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay, you can see where they added Allen, Burrow, Mahomes, and Brady. But a QB along doesn't sustain success as the Chargers and Texans show.

Looking back at 2022

Below is where each team was entering the 2022 season. On the x-axis is their 3 year draft value (teams to the right drafted better, to the left drafted worse) and on the y-axis is their prior season (2021) win percentage. Teams are identified by color on if their record improved in 2022 (green), stayed the same within a game or two (grey), or decreased (red).

Again, a lot goes into each team's story (injuries, adding or losing a QB, etc.) but it is interesting that the teams that got worse (the red teams) are generally teams that hadn't drafted well over a several year period but were still winning. And the teams that improved (green) are almost exclusively ones that drafted better than league average. The exceptions are few:

• Tampa and Denver who both had a big drop off at QB
• Seattle improved with the top rated 2022 draft (and one of the best drafts over the past 5 years) and improved QB play from Geno Smith after trading Russ
• The Jets bounced from a really low point, going from 4 wins to 7 wins, with the 3rd best rated draft in 2022, adding two difference makers in Sauce and Garrett Wilson
• The Raiders had one of the worst 2022 drafts (26th in the league) and fell apart with their QB not finishing the season

Teams that stand out entering 2023

There are a handful of teams that stand out where their recent draft performance is better than their records or the opposite, where they may be winning but haven't gotten value in recent drafts:

Looking up?

Jacksonville Jaguars - The only team that has generated more draft value over the past 4 years is Dallas. With a 6 win jump last year and having their QB and an actualcompetent coach, there probably isn't another team with more upside.
Atlanta Falcons - Another team that has outperformed in the draft with back-to-back top drafts. Pitts and London get the press but they have hit on several picks including Allgeier, AJ Terrell, and Ogundeji. A lot comes down to Ridder who I had as my 2021 draft QB1.
Detroit Lions - Not a secret as many see upside for Detroit. They have benefited from a lot of draft capital from being bad so long and the Goff trade, but they have generated the 3rd most draft value over the past 4-years and haven't seen the bump in win percentage. Yet... WIth the the 5th most draft capital including two 1sts and two 2nds, and a weakening division, they are set up to take a leap.

Downside?

Minnesota Vikings - They've had two bad drafts in a row and haven't had an above average pick since Justin Jefferson really. Add in that they have the 3rd least amount of draft capital this year and repeating anything near their 2022 13-4 record is going to be tough.
Cleveland Browns - 3rd worst draft value over the past 4 years and hasn't drafted a single median value player in the past 2 drafts. In 2023 they have the 5th least draft capital after the Watson trade, making it even harder to improve. Having a QB will help their value but as Deshaun showed in Houston, he alone isn't going to lift a bad team.
Washington Commanders - They've had two poor drafts in a row and have decent but not great draft capital this year with most of their picks in the later rounds. With a couple of free agency moves that helped the OL, they still have questions at QB and skill positions. They have to have a good draft
Arizona Cardinals - Not surprising to be on this list but just last year they were forecasted to win 8-9 games. Losing Kyler hurt as they lost their last 7 games on way to a 4-13 record. Kyler, concerns aside, will return but they have had 3 consecutive poor drafts and the 4th worst draft record in the league over the past 4 years. They do have the 7th most draft capital this year and a good draft is critical.

Drill into the teams below to see their draft value and win percentages over time.

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