Positional value and the draft

Positional value is often misunderstood and a bit abstract, but very real for many teams and GMs, including the Eagles' Howie Roseman. Simply, positional value doesn't mean positions like LB, RB, or TE are unimportant, it means that they are cheaper to replace in the open market (free agency) than premium positions. And since the draft makes no distinction on positions - picks have defined rookie salaries no matter if you take a quarterback or a kicker - positional value turns into maximizing a fixed asset (draft picks) vs. variable costs (players at different positions).

The chart below shows projected open market costs for each position based on the pick location in the draft. This is created by taking the average value of the current top 5 contracts for each position and scaling at each pick location by the historical player value in the draft at that pick. This will be imperfect but does match up against many free agent and extension examples and generally aligns with Ben Baldwin's surplus value work. And the point is not to predict individual deals but to show the cost curve of different positions where contracts are based off of performance vs. the top contracts.

Show/hide positions in the above chart:

Expected pick value table

Below shows the values from the above chart for each position by pick location including the current market contract cost (AAV in $M) and percent of salary cap on the second line. Again, these are "on average" values but you can see the comparable value of a position at different pick locations. To give a popular example this year, most mocks project the Colts drafting a TE at pick 14. Here's how to look at their decision from a positional value perspective:

• TE at pick 14 is "worth" $14.2M (or 5% of the cap) based on projected values but in 2025's free agency, the top TEs signed under that with Evan Engram at $11.5M and Juwan Johnson at $10.25M.
• DT, a position Indy also needs, is "worth" $21M (or 7.5% of the cap), right in between this year's top two free agents DT Milton Williams at $26M and Jonathan Allen at $17M.

If you are a TE-needy team picking high like the Colts, there is approximately a $7M loss of value drafting a TE over the fastest rising cost position group, DT. Positional value would say they would be better off with Walter Nolen and signing Engram or Johnson for around $10M vs. drafting Tyler Warren and either paying twice that for a DT or signing a $10M DT like Poona Ford. Now, if you think Warren (or Loveland) is really that special like Brock Bowers, go ahead and draft him. But you better be right or you are wasting cap.