Just search Twitter for “Josh Allen” + your favorite young, underperforming QB and you will find post after post making a case for a repeat of Allen’s rise from a college QB that missed the Combine netting to one of the league’s best QBs.
And it happens in the draft every year… last year for Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder and this year for Will Levis and Anthony Richardson.
Allen’s story is well known. He finished college with a 56% completion percentage and a wretched completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of -9.2 playing in the Mountain West. But Allen developed.
Now the Eagles’ own Jalen Hurts, who had accuracy questioned by pre-draft scouts, has developed.
Allen still has the greatest improvement in accuracy in the league, but Hurts is now second, going from 37th in the league in 2020 with a -8.33 CPOE to 4th in 2022 with a +3.28 CPOE.
And they aren’t the only ones. Prior to both Allen and Hurts, Dak Prescott‘s mechanics and consistency were questioned (yes, this is an Eagles site but I am no Dak hater). Dak’s aggregate stats at Mississippi State were fine, but most scouting reports pointed to his splits on passing depth – over 60% of his attempts were 10 yards or less which drove up his stats and he suffered on anything downfield. But in the NFL Dak has only had one season with a negative CPOE – 2017 when he had a barely-below-zero CPOE of -0.2.
The innate vs. developing talent debate
With these examples, the widely and long-held view that a QB’s accuracy is innate and not something able to be developed has fallen.
Troy Aikman was speaking here about Allen specifically, but his was the majority of the league’s view just a few years ago: “I think as a quarterback when you’re inaccurate, from my experience as a player in studying these guys for the last 17 years, you usually do not overcome that.”
Saying that something like accuracy can’t be developed just doesn’t make sense.
Biomechanics training groups like 3DQB with Tom House and Adam Dedeaux, QB Summit with Jordan Palmer, kinesiologist Rob Williams’ SPORTCORE Performance, and Quincy Avery at QB Takeover are the ones changing this. But their work isn’t new. House famously helped Drew Brees relaunch his career after his 2005 shoulder injury and Tom Brady fix mechanical issues that crept into his game in 2012.
3DQB worked with Dak, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and our own Jalen Hurts this past offseason. Jordan Palmer famously worked with Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Deshaun Watson. This year’s CJ Stroud worked with Avery and Palmer. Bryce Young is with 3DQB. Will Levis and Bo Nix are working with Rob Williams.
An understanding that accuracy issues often result from mechanical issues further down the kinetic chain – out of sync feet, too wide or narrow of a base, stride, hip and shoulder separation, front-arm location, head movement, and on and on – is what drives these groups. And new tech that builds visual models of the body in motion and pinpoints unseen issues in delivery has helped drive that change.
In a GQ.com interview, House explained this impact: “We’re in a perfect world right now where the technology is allowing people to identify stuff that’s never been seen before. The next piece of the puzzle after identification is solution. And that’s where we have a head start because we started our science in the mid-80’s.”
Two examples that will be relevant below:
Tom Brady’s front arm: House explained why Brady was missing high in 2012, pointing to his front arm being too low:
“Brady had everything good, except his front side was too low and leading too quick. The fix on that basically was keep your front side, basically your hand over your front foot and take a bite out of whatever burger you have in your hand. If you look at all the quarterbacks when they throw, it all looks like they’re taking a bite out of their front hand. It’s basically keeping all your energy going in one direction. How did I know that Tom Brady needed a little help with his front side elbow? Cause he was missing high and low. When you miss right and left, it’s your head. When you miss high and low, it’s your front side, elbow in his case.” – Tom House from GQ.com interview
Jalen Hurts’ “left leg lockout”: Trent Dilfer and Quincy Avery noticed back at a high school camp that Hurts was locking his left leg when throwing, making the throwing motion “jerky” and leading to accuracy issues, especially missing high.
“Jalen, you’re amazing, I love you, please don’t take this bad, but if you don’t fix this, you have no chance.” – Trent Dilfer, ESPN.com
Surrounding young QBs…
It’s hard to find a pro or top college QB that isn’t now working with one of these groups. But mechanics alone isn’t enough.
The Eagles give Hurts weapons
Last offseason, when many were questioning the Eagles’ commitment to Hurts, Howie said exactly what their plan was. “I think for us we have to do whatever we can to continue to help him develop. How do we do that? By surrounding him with really good players.”
Already possessing one of the league’s best offensive lines, Howie used a 2nd rounder to bring in Cam Jurgens a year after using a 2nd on Landon Dickerson.
Still suffering from a miss on Jalen Reagor, Howie, for a third year in a row, used a 1st rounder (this time with a trade) to bring in A.J. Brown, one of Jalen’s best friends and a young, elite receiver to pair with DeVonta Smith. The Eagles entered the 2022 season with an elite OL and an offense with three top receiving targets with Dallas Goedert.
The Bills improve the line and receivers
It’s the same approach Buffalo used with Josh Allen. In 2019, they invested in their receivers, spending almost $60 million in free agency to bring in Cole Beasley and John Brown. Still missing an explosive WR1, in 2020 they traded a 1st for Stefon Diggs.
The Bills spent another $70 million in 2019 on the OL when they brought in Mitch Morse, Ty Nsekhe, Spencer Long, and Jon Feliciano, improving from the middle of the league in 2019 to 4th in 2020.
And not to ignore the run game, the Bills have invested the 3rd most draft capital in the league in running backs since 2018, using three day 2 picks to bring in Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and James Cook.
And the Dolphins finally load up for Tua
The same thing with Miami to support Tua. They added Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, and Tyreek Hill at receiver on top of Mike Gesicki at TE, creating one of the most dangerous receiver groups in the league.
And after using a 1st on OT Austin Jackson in 2020 and a 2nd on Liam Eichenberg in 2021, they spent $90 million on OT Terron Armstead and OC Connor Williams this off-season, moving the Dolphins OL from last in the league to a not-as-awful 24th.
And not surrounding QBs…
What the heck are the Bears doing?
The knock on Fields wasn’t accuracy – he had the highest ever recorded college CPOE at +12 and unlike Allen and Zach Wilson, there weren’t concerns about Fields’ level of competition. The concern with Fields was and still is the timing of throws when he waits for a receiver to be open. This was the main concern with pre-2022 Hurts.
Can Fields develop this? Maybe. Hurts did, so you can’t say it’s impossible. But the Bears didn’t help Fields and now don’t know what they have.
Their OL statistically is a bit below middle of the league, but it isn’t good. They used 8 draft picks on the OL but only one was above a 5th rounder when they took Teven Jenkins in the 2nd. And they haven’t brought anybody in during free agency. This is an amusing thread for all but Fields himself:
This year Fields was under pressure 45.7% of snaps, the highest in the league. He definitely bears some responsibility here, though, as he holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league. But that brings us to his receivers…
The Bears are 28th in the league in cap spent on WRs this year after letting Allen Robinson leave in free agency. Darnell Mooney is WR1 and they traded for Chase Claypool during the season but this is nowhere near “good weapons”.
Now Chicago is sitting here with the top pick and wondering if they take a QB…
What do the QB-needy teams need to do?
Houston, Indy, Carolina, and Raiders are the clear teams sitting in the top 10 that need QBs. Who knows what Chicago will do at 1. The Jets and Commanders will need a restart but are in the middle of the 1st. Brady could retire. And the Lions could also decide to take a shot even though they still have Goff. New Orleans needs a QB but not sure if everybody knows they don’t have a 1st after trading it to Philly last year, crazily thinking they were a contender…
Here’s a look at where the definite and possible QB-needy teams rank on OL and pass catchers as well as current 2023 cap space before any moves to end the 2022 season:
| Team | Top Picks(s) | Pass Block Rank | Pass Catcher Rank | 2023 Cap Space |
| Chicago | 1 | 16 | 32 | $92.9M |
| Houston | 2, 12 | 17 | 24 | $40.3M |
| Indianapolis | 4 | 32 | 29 | $13.3M |
| Detroit | 6, 18 | 18 | 3 | $15.0M |
| Las Vegas | 7 | 10 | 9 | $22.3M |
| Carolina | 9 | 11 | 28 | -$7.6M |
| Tennessee | 11 | 26 | 25 | -$23.2M |
| New York Jets | 13 | 21 | 21 | -$2.4M |
| Washington | 16 | 27 | 15 | $7.3M |
| Tampa Bay | 19 | 25 | 19 | -$54.5M |
| New Orleans | 40 | 16 | 13 | -$58.1M |
Many will be in the free agent QB market, but touching on a few of the top QB-needy teams:
Houston Texans – With their other pick in the 1st, they could go in a lot of directions as they have big needs on the DL as well. While they have Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, they need to upgrade here and could look at Quentin Johnston or Jordan Addison. Or be in position for one of the top OTs to pair with Tunsil. Given their cap space, they have the luxury to draft BPA and go after OL or weapons in free agency. A new QB wouldn’t be in the worst position here.
Indianapolis Colts – Probably the worst starting spot for a new QB, the Colts have an uninspiring set of pass catchers and need to upgrade an OG spot and possibly OT unless you have faith in Raimann. They have needs in the secondary as well but need to resist the urge and invest around whichever QB they take. They have some cap space but receivers and tackles aren’t cheap in free agency.
Carolina Panthers – Maybe they give will Matt Corral a shot in 2023 but they are clearly not settled at the position and will have a shot at one of the second-tier guys in this draft. There’s reason to be hopeful on the OL after they took Ekwonu high last year and have a decent line today. They have D.J. Moore and drafted Terrace Marshall who has not progressed, but traded away Christian McCaffrey. They really need to invest in offensive weapons and given their cap space, they aren’t going to get it in free agency.
Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New Orleans – Each is in a not-great draft spot to get a QB and all are in awful cap situations. The Titans have Malik Willis and Tannehill has a big dead cap hit but they can save money if they move on from him. Tampa and New Orleans will have a tough time moving far enough up for a top QB without further mortgaging the future – they both need to look at blowing things up.
Anthony Richardson
To me, nobody in this draft will be more fascinating to see where they go in the draft than Richardson. Currently around 20 on big boards, he could anywhere from top 10 to the middle rounds.
Richardson could be the poster child for this article. Highly athletic but raw with accuracy and mechanics issues. For every amazing play there is a head-scratcher. His film matches with a poor 53% completion percentage and 17 TDs vs. 9 INTs but one of the highest ADOTs and big-time throw rates in the class and over 700 yards rushing.
QB mechanics is absolutely NOT my specialty (I’m much better at punters…) but remember the two examples above – Brady’s front arm and Hurts’ left leg lockout – that led to inaccuracy, especially high? Richardson does both and when you watch, his accuracy issues are regularly passes missing high.
His game vs. Georgia was not great, going 18/38 for a 47.4% completion rate. And this included going 9/9 behind the LOS, leaving his passing beyond the LOS at 31%. Here’s a still from a screen pass that was completed only because the RB leapt to catch a way-too-high ball. His left arm is too low and you see this over and over on a lot of his errant throws.
And here, a two-fer where Richardson both locks his front leg and holds his front arm low, overthrowing Justin Shorter who had 2 yards on safety Malaki Starks for what should have been an easy touchdown. Again, this is something you see repeatedly with him.
Again I am no biomechanic expert but you don’t need to be to see these two examples in Richardson’s motion. And I’m not saying Richardson will make it, I don’t know… there are a hundred reasons to bet against him and, heck, with the best evaluators in the world still having a less than 15% hit rate on 1st round QBs let alone later round guys, betting against any and all QBs has much better odds than a casino’s house odds.
But Richardson is 21, just finished his first year as a starter, and only has 395 career pass attempts. He absolutely would need to develop behind another QB which is why I think it is unlikely he goes really high.
A team that is interesting to me is Detroit. The Lions have a great situation with Amon-Ra St. Brown and last year’s Jameson Williams, a good OL with youth on it, a ton of draft capital, and $28M in cap space next year before any moves.
Most don’t see the Lions taking a QB, instead wanting investments in the DL and secondary, which they could use. But how much do you love Goff long-term? And you never know when you will pick this high again with an improving team. But if you think Richardson’s issues are fixable and he falls to a spot in the draft you are comfortable with, it is really interesting upside at the most important position.
Which brings us back to Hurts and why Howie was smarter than all of us to take him. A 2nd round pick is a cheap pick for an upside QB – a mobile QB that changes how defenses play you – especially if you think they are able to develop. The next best player taken in that draft after Hurts? Jeremy Chinn – a good player but nowhere near the impact a starting QB has.
Allen and Hurts are great examples of QBs developing in the league. And with QBs and teams embracing the great biomechanical work being done, hopefully there will be many more, including Richardson.
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